- Injustice in Housing is a Life or Death Matter
- The library: a recession sanctuary?
- Nutter should get credit where credit's due
- Thursday Counter-Protest at "We Stand with Israel" Rally
- This Saturday: hearing of Mayor's Task force on Ethics
- Why do we fund this?
- ABC debuts "Homeland Security USA"
- Library Closings: They Have Never Really Been About The Budget Crisis
- DA's Job to Prosecute Environmental Crime
- Is the number of branch libraries in Philly significantly out of line with cities of comparable size?
Final Survey USA Poll: Nutter by 11
Submitted by Adam B. on Mon, 05/14/2007 - 2:39pm.
Nutter 36%
Knox 25%
Fattah 13%
Brady 12%
Evans 6%
Undecided 5%
MoE at ± 4.2%. Nutter leads among both African-American and white voters.
Crosstabs here; "1000 city of Philadelphia adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/11/07 through 05/13/07. Of them, 920 were registered to vote. Of them, 698 were Democrats. Of the Democrats, 560 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 5/15/07 Democratic Primary and are included in this survey."
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Freakin' Kids
18-34s still going heavily for Knox. Stop watching too much TV! And get the hell off my lawn!
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26-year-old Volunteering for Michael Nutter
not quite
It's the 18-28 year olds ("Gen Y"); above that, Nutter's leading.
See what I have to deal with
See what I have to deal with in my generation! Of these people, supposedly, I'm supposed to find a suitable mate and give my mother some grandchildren. Go figure.
Why?
If I'm reading the numbers correctly, which I may not be--it is because 56% of those polled believe crime is the most important issue in this election. And, frankly, as I said before, Nutter is the strongest candidate on crime (yes, I know some are weary of this issue). I think it was Fran who said it may just be polar positioning, and if that is the case, it was excellent positioning.
Crime will be the hot-button political issue for the next two years. We may not want to believe it, but murderers and drug dealers have made it so.
Similarly, I think Fattah's fighting-poverty message was subsumed by crime. Honestly, I would love to talk and act on poverty in this city. While I'm not sure a municipality is the right place to do it, having the conversation is important. I acknowledge, however, that goverment's first and most important capacity is security. Too many people do not have it. As I have said since last year, crime policy is short, medium and long term. That is a reality. The want for short term solutions that will have an almost immediate affect is why, in my estimation, the poverty issue did not get out of the box.
Ultimately, this all may be pre-mature. Despite frequent disagreement, I respect Ray a lot, and know that if he is confident, then I should temper any predictions. But, really, this comment is a reflection of the poll.
chicken, egg
I'm not sure how to thread the needle, because the crime numbers and the overall numbers are almost the same, except that Brady does a few points better than Fattah on crime alone. Fattah does well among Street supporters (the "do you believe the city is well-managed?") folks still
Compare it to three months ago, when it was Fattah 32, Knox 22, Brady 18, Evans 10 and Nutter 8, and this is what I see:
-- Nutter goes from 11% to 40% of the white vote, coming from both Brady (32 down to 18) and Fattah (13 down to 4); Knox constant at 32-33%.
-- Fattah's support among black voters fell from 52% to 23%; Nutter's rose from 5% to 34%.
cross tabs...
This survey leaves out a cross tab on level of Education... This was a huge error in the Keystone poll which had an over 50% make up of people who had a college degree or better (the number is somewhere between 16 and 20%)... Not quite representative... People who are more likely to answer poll are more likely to be educated, are more likely to vote Nutter (Though there are 3 college degrees in my house most likely going Brady).
I'd be skeptical of any polling.
it doesn't look like they asked
Which doesn't mean that they got it wrong, or that they got it right. These are quick, automated phone-based polls.
SUSA polls tend to be pretty good
Also, Nutter has a commanding lead and there are very few undecideds.
detroit
In Detroit's municipal election from the day before the election last year, the survey USA poll was off by 13 points .
and if poll IS right
then no one should be voting for Nutter just to beat Knox.
Fair enough, if you think
Fair enough, if you think there's no substantial difference between them, or even if you think they're equally unappetizing prospects - as I'm sure you do, Ray.
But I don't think you have a right to tell people not to vote strategically. Or to say that everyone should totally dismiss the polls because they don't say what you want them to.
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Volunteering for Michael Nutter
a right?
Um, remember America buddy? I have a right to say whatever I want.
I am not forcing anyone to do anything, but like I have already said, I am confident Fattah has a chance at winning. I understand that Nutter supporters want to make it seem like he doesn't so they can capture as much of the anti-Knox vote as possible, but my reading of the situation is that it's Nutter than has to be beat, not Knox.
Therefore anti-Knox voting for Nutter by people who'd rather support Fattah seems silly to me at this point since a vote for Fattah is at this point a vote for Fattah winning.
"it's Nutter than has to be beat"
Would you rather see Mayor Knox than Mayor Nutter? Why?
I want to see Fattah as Mayor
really bad.
Nutter is a DLC-style, economic conservative Dem. He is in the lead. He is the man to be beat. I think that is pretty simple. If it's a tight race, Nutter is leading, and Fattah can close the gap, why wouldn't I, or anyone else who likes him vote for him?
Ray is entitled to try and
Ray is entitled to try and presuade people to not vote for X so Y doesn't win. Just like we are entitled to say, it is a two person race and a vote for Fattah is a vote for Knox. As far as I can see, even though I disagree with Ray, he hasn't crossed the line. That would be something more like--if you do the former, you are a bad person, bad "progressive" or un-American.
Personally, I have no problem voting strategically. Often times, elections are about the least bad candidate. Fortuntately, this election has, in my estimation, the best candidate on top right now.
I forgot the "DLC" is a bad word around here.
ADA and PFC and CWA
Nutter's an Americans for Democratic Action, Philly for Change, and a Clean Water Action style Democrat. They all endorsed him.
Fine, how 'bout this...
If you really want Chaka Fattah to be mayor, and that's your primary goal, I'd vote for him.
If you're undecided, but you really don't want Tom Knox to be mayor, I would vote for Nutter.
To be honest, Ray, I'm not sure I wouldn't vote for Fattah if the poll numbers were reversed. And Fattah would be a better mayor than Knox. He has been, and may continue to be, a great congressman. But he hasn't made his case in this campaign, for a number of reasons.
If Nutter's unequivocally a DLC/Conservative Democrat, that certainly undermines the endorsements of many progressive groups and people; I don't think that's really true. As far as strategic voting goes, D.E., everyone's done it at some point. I'm not saying this is a race where people NEED to do it - if you don't like Nutter or Knox, by all means don't vote for Nutter or Knox. I don't think you need to bully people. But I do think repeatedly trying to discredit polls that repeatedly don't say what you want is a little disingenuous, and the polls will inevitably work as something of a framing device for election day.
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Volunteering for Michael Nutter
Anyone but Knox OR Nutter
Some of us see Knox and Nutter as equally unsavory candidates. Its not as black and white (no pun intended) as you make it sound.
You mean, like, when I said
You mean, like, when I said this?
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Volunteering for Michael Nutter
The reason I'm undecided
is exactly because none of the candidates has convinced me to vote for them.
Strategic voting is a possibility, but in order for that to make sense then I have to weigh voting for a candidate I don't think deserves my vote against how much worse I think that Knox would be as a mayor. For all of the ways that Knox, personally, is not someone I want to be my mayor - I would indeed be interested to see what happens if someone really goes through City services with a fine-toothed comb to look for waste, redundancy, and ineffeciences. I'm not sure I believe that Knox would really do that, but I'm also not sure that I'd trust Nutter to do that very effectively, as he does have a history of playing the system to advance his personal political career.
Some of the votes I most regret were "strategic" votes.
DE - I'm just a little
DE - I'm just a little curious what you regret from your time as a strategic voter. This isn't any kind of pitch - I'm honestly interested.
Lord knows I'm not going to convince you to vote for Nutter. I've employed my feeble rhetorical skills enough in this space. As the Last Undecided on Earth, though, I hope you do eventually share with us who you go with, and what your thought process is.
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Volunteering for Michael Nutter
I regret
voting for Clinton in '92, as I see his presidency as setting the stage for the horrors of Bush in many ways: Clinton got welfare reform through which I don't think any Republican would have been able to get through, and Democrats have never looked back despite the growing gaps between the super-rich and everyone else. Clinton's success contributed greatly to the subsequent (and losing) Democratic strategy of trying to out-Republican the Republicans. The Clinton administration very much advanced the linkage of industry insiders to government regulatory agencies. And Clinton's smarminess has given much ammunition to the rightwing that they've employed very successfully since.
On the other hand, I do regret not going with the lesser of two evils and voting for Gore (I was so disgusted by Clinton that I figured it would make little difference, and as much as I still dislike Gore, clearly he couldn't have been as bad as Bush).
And I was raised by a politically active father who told me many times that the last time he'd ever vote for the lesser of two evils was when he voted for LBJ (because of the Vietnam War).
For me, there's no generic answer to the question of strategic voting, and I object when people try to simplify the intractability of the problem it represents.
Whaa? More malarkey from Nutter enthusiasts?
Have you read all the comments on this site telling people that they have some obligation to vote strategically? But Ray as no right to say people should vote for Fattah?
This stuff is really weird. I thought you were one of the more balanced Nutterites. Most of the folks talking about the need to vote strategically are Nutter supporters. And what's interesting that it is mostly directed at Fattah supporters. What's that about?
I've got a few suggestions. First of all, if you feel that the strategic voting is what's important, maybe you should be going after the Brady supporters, not the Fattah supporters.
Secondly, maybe you should look in the mirror. If you think strategic voting is so important, because the most important thing to do is to defeat Knox, then you should all band together and throw your support behind Fattah or Brady. There's no doubt that if you all did so, you'd defeat Knox easily.
Most of this "stratecic voting" rhetoric strikes me as disingenuous: people actually focused on Nutter wining saying that others should focus on defeating Knox.
strategic voting
I've told friends for months (and possibly on YPP as well; I don't recall) -- and up until recently, Nutter was around 10% -- that if Nutter couldn't win, I'd absolutely and gladly vote for Cong. Fattah.
If Fattah was neck-and-neck with Knox, his supporters would be promoting strategic voting too.
Scorecard
They seem to get it right more times then not:
http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/SurveyUSA2005ElectionScoreCard.htm
thanks for that website
In almost every example you cited they were off by at least 5 points, even if the person who they said was in the lead won. Also, every example you gave was in a 2-way race, often with Yes/No proposition questions.
Which means in a 5-way race, where the margin or error counts more, I think you proved my point.
not quite
It was 2005, and the poll was a 51-44 loss (4% undecided) in a two-way race, in which the undecideds all broke to the incumbent (odd), plus good field effort to produce a 53-47 incumbent victory. Not exactly 13 points off, nor would one bad poll invalidate SUSA altogether. (After all, they were still closer on that race than anyone else, and did damn well across the board in 2006 too.)
Ray, if the poll is right, there's no reason to vote for Fattah other than to remind Mayor Nutter to focus on poverty too. But this is a winner-take-all race for a mayor, not a proportional representation race to fill a legislative chamber to select a prime minister, and votes for candidates who can't win simply don't much matter.
do what you want
Adam, you have a right to say what you want.
I think you are wrong. I think Fattah has a chance, and a good chance.
No one should vote for the lesser of two evils when there is a good shot for a good candidate.
People should vote for whomever they choose
But I resent the notion that Nutter the lesser of two evils. Plenty of progressives and "Deaniacs" are enthusiastically lining up behind the so called "conservative Democrat". Maybe they actually realize the difference between local and national politics/issues.
of course people should vote for who they chose
This day began with my friend Dan saying he was lukewarm on both Nutter and Fattah, but he thought Nutter could beat Knox so he was gonna vote for Nutter.
All I have been doing all day is addressing people online who feel the same way and saying that I think Dan is wrong. I think Nutter is the man to beat, and that Fattah is the one to do it.
period.
If you already support Nutter cause you like him for who he is, I am not really talking to you.
What I meant
Is that I agree with you in the sense that people should vote for whomever they think is the best candidate. When Knox was leading, there was a ton of talk of voting for him since he had the best chance to beat Fattah and Brady...I couldn't stand it.
I do take offense to the notion the Nutter is somehow the lesser of 2 evils. He has run an honorable campaign, stayed away from cheap shots and made an effort to focus on issues not personalities. You might not agree with him on some of the issues, but calling him the lesser of 2 evils makes it seem like voting for some low-life who's slightly better then even some even bigger low-life.
It's a big city
Visit Northeast Philly. Look at Northeast Philly on a map and note how big it is.
Visit South Philly.
Hell, visit Fishtown.
There are a lot of people pumped and ready to vote for Tom Knox.
People who know field and who know elections have a lot of respect for Johnny Doc's troops on E-Day. They are not to be taken lightly. They are pulling for Knox.
Ray can make the case for a race coming down to Nutter and his guy, but I've been out there, and I'd say he missing something.
If you don't want Knox, I'd advise voting for Nutter.
Proudly supporting the whole BEAUTIFUL Philly For Change Ballot, featuring MICHAEL NUTTER for Mayor
Too Late to Get Into this Too Deeply
But Nutter is certainly not the "lesser of two evils". He's run a great campaign, worked hard, and connected with voters of all types in all kinds of neighborhoods. Nutter is a dedicated, intelligent, visionary, and compassionate person who will take this City to new heights if elected Mayor. Go Michael!
He's the lesser of two evils to me
but not in the personal sense. I believe he's a person of integrity, with intelligence and drive. But I think his policies are wrong, and both regarding taxes and crime, downright dangerous. Now if you believed that, which I know you don't, how would you vote? Would you give up hope that someone who is also a person of integrity, with policies that you strongly favor, could win?
Bravo, Mr. Shapiro
I think you should vote for Fattah, honestly. I would never want a conviction such as yours to go to waste on a "lesser-of-two-evils" vote. Hope to see you sometime after tomorrow.
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Volunteering for Michael Nutter
Voting Strategery
I would vote strategically. I've done it before. Wanna stop Knox? Vote Nutter. Fattah's numbers have been dropping ever since this competition began; reminds me of my GPA in high school.
Not gonna do that
in case you're wondering. Vote for the guy with the D grade to prevent the F guy and give up a chance for the A guy? No.
Real Tales from the Trail
We lo-o-o-o-o-ve bars with Wireless!
This just phoned in from my longtime ex- who teaches 3d grade in University City.
After lunch, around 1:30, she had to stop class because so many of her students were huddling around the window. What were they seeing?
A group of big guys were pulling down Bob Brady signs along 43rd St. south of Locust. They weren't supposed to do that! (gee...I wonder if they were affiliated with a certain District Councilperson?). Her students were incensed.
By the time they got outside, orange-and-blue Tom Knox signs were appearing where the Brady signs had been.
Before the big guys knew what was happening, a group of 22 8-year-olds were lined up in front of them, right on the street, chanting:
WE-HATE TOM-KNOX! WE-HATE TOM-KNOX! WE-HATE TOM-KNOX!
(There had been a vote in class that day. Nutter won big. Knox had been shut out.)
A group of white-and-red shirted Michael Nutter volunteers walked by, was horrified, continued canvassing, not a drop of latte spilled.
I wonder what South Philly's going to be like tomorrow...
This is going to be fun!
Proudly supporting the whole BEAUTIFUL Philly For Change Ballot, featuring MICHAEL NUTTER for Mayor
A good chance?
We know about the field operation, but Cong. Fattah only has 23% of the black vote in this poll. Is the polling *that* inaccurate?
the only reason
and the only reason for that is that Fattah was not on TV as much. You can blame us for not raising as much money as Nutter, but the reasons for that are complex and no small part of that has to with the fact that the people who support an anti-poverty agenda aren't always able to pen up their checkbooks and write $50, $100 or $5000 checks.
Either way, Fattah has a good field team, a message about education and hope that resonates in a lot of communities and I guess we'll all see what happens.
That's a story for post-Election
What did happen with Fattah's fundraising? I imagine there was a certain amount of hoping that either Council or the courts would allow bigger checks to come in, but one would have thought that his existing contributor base could have been more effectively harvested, or that he'd have had more national Democratic figures come to town for fundraising events, etc.
And, generally, I was really surprised that no candidate tried to nationalize fundraising for this race via the blogosphere.
Poll shows momentum
Whether you agree with the validity of the poll or not, it certainly shows real momentum in Nutter's favor over the past several months. The fact that it mirrors the Keystone poll also adds to the credibility. It's by no means over, but should be encouraging to all the Nutter supporters who have struck with it all this time.
No Doubt
Nutter's numbers have gone up. However, this is still taking place in a non-representative poll. This is just as likely to be caused by the slew of anti-Knox ads swaying the undecided, and not Nutter gaining momentum on his own.
Also, the fact that both polls have these numbers does not make it more credible. Two polls using flawed methodology do not validate one another. (Everyone on here who has taken the LSAT can have fun with that line)
Either way, we’re pulling for different candidates, and we’ll both be working hard tomorrow. If this poll turns out to be even close to accurate when the results come in, first round is on me!
Good luck to all of the candidates tomorrow!
My two cents on the NBC10/Survey USA poll today
Hello, all-
This poll's mere existence was a pleasant surprise, as I had not anticipated that there would be another genuinely independent poll released, prior to the primary, after last week's Keystone Poll. Having just analyzed the numbers, and read the posts above, here are some thoughts:
1) On polls in general - here is a handy tool to use to calculate whether leads are statistically significant:
ARG polling has a calculator to do all the tough math. You just plug in the lead and the sample size, and it tells you.
Link: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe2.shtml
In this particular case, Nutter is at 36%, Knox at 25%, and the sample size was 560 Democrats. Here are the results from the ARG widget:
They confirm that Nutter's lead is not only statistically significant, but sizable. It could fall anywhere between the lower limit of a 4.6% lead over Knox, or at the higher limit, a 17.4% lead over Knox.
You might ask how Nutter could - at least theoretically - be ahead by 17.4%, when his lead is 11% w/ a margin of error of only 4.2%. I can't answer that. It's just that their professional pollsters have constructed this widget and I trust their math. (To illustrate, you can see how only a little more accurate it might be, if you just go and add a couple of hundred voters to the sample size.)
Is the poll valid? Certainly. It mirrors the Keystone poll, which also showed Nutter with a low-double-digit lead. Perhaps more importantly, it reinforces the behavior of the Knox campaign, with the attacks on Nutter - clearly their internal polling is showing the same info that these public polls are.
Obviously, this is great news for Nutter's campaign and GOTV operation, and woe for everyone else (with the possible exception of Brady, who is reportedly releasing some of his support to ensure Knox's defeat).
Does it mean it's over?
No, of course not. It's never over until the last ballot's been cast. And this is particularly true in a city where GOTV operations - in a five-way contest - count enormously. Knox can afford to purchase an impressive army of GOTV operatives. While Nutter clearly has the edge in terms of hearts and minds, he also needs to seal the deal by getting his voters to the polls to cast their ballots.
(FYI: If anyone is interested in the post-May 7 debate media question/answer session, with four of the five candidates and Chris Matthews - you can find it at:
www.campaignia.org/6.html
Campaignia is dedicated to the study and exploration of political campaigns, and will have a story about the mayoral campaign after all the dust has settled.)
Anyhow, these are just my opinions. Reactions are welcome.
this is totally totally insane
Seriously. Insane. I had expected a 4 point lead at the end, at best.
I think the Nutter campaign can give a big fat thank you to Mr. Knox for plowing 6 million into reform TV ads over the last 4 months.
In his own way, Tom Knox will take the For Sale sign off of City Hall...just not the way he had expected to! Ha ha ha.
Me? I'm praying for rain tomorrow. ;)
Hannah
field field field
I stand by my earlier prediction: Fattah in first, Brady in second, Nutter in third...
Time to stop prognosticating and let the voters decide... Still lots of undecideds in them thar hills...