Ok, the race for Vince Fumo's seat is such a car wreck on the highway: you just can't help but stare. It's important, but there is so much else going on like the city budget, gun law drama with the DA, state rep challengers like Brown and Davis, and incumbent fighters like Tony Payton...oh, and isn't there a presidential debate or something tonight?
That said, let's talk for one sec about Dougherty's new poll. I asked campaign manager Brian Hickey if cross-tabs were released to media, and he said no. So that means we've only got this email to go on:
So I am no pollster, but I know a bit about voter targeting and I passed statistics on the 2nd try. So here goes some questions:
- How many voters were sampled?
- Was the sample comprised of frequent voters + a demographically accurate sampling of the unlikley voters who are coming out for Presidential election?
- What is the margin of error?
Without answers to those questions, based on this data, it's hard not to think that Dicker and Farnese are pretty much in a tie, and that undecideds will distribute pretty evenly. And, if the poll is only of frequent voters, it makes sense that Dougherty is so far ahead, since those are folks who have gotten the most mail, calls, and the most likely to listen to ward leader/committee person advice.
That's not to deny the fact that Dougherty clearly has a huge advantage, not just in poll numbers, but cash on hand, and endorsements too. But without crosstabs for the poll released today, it's hard to get a more accurate picture of the race--especially since a voter universe this big and unpredictable hasn't been seen in Philly in over 30 years.
an email I just received from the Farnese campaign
Farnese Surges in Latest Poll
According to national polling firm Anzalone-Liszt Larry's Fresh Start campaign has surged into a statistical dead heat with John Dougherty. As of April 14, Dougherty is at 30, Farnese is at 26 and Dicker is at 21 with a margin of error of 4.5.
Dougherty's poll numbers are virtually unchanged from two weeks ago despite spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in paid communication. His name recognition remains high but voters seem concerned by the federal investigation of allegedly illegal payments made to Dougherty by a contractor and allegedly illegal gifts provided to Dougherty by a Foxwoods Casino investor. Nearly 50% of those that say they plan to vote for him also say they are willing to change their vote on Tuesday.
This race is wide open.
Dicker's support has plummeted by 9 points and she is now a distant third. Her position is a direct result of her lack of resources, her inability to communicate with voters and her failure to recruit volunteers. In addition, the poll was conducted prior to her top campaign staff quitting and the admission that she has colluded with one of Dougherty's chief political strategists. By all reports, her campaign is in shambles. Despite her anti-casino stance and Dougherty's ties to Santorum, she has reportedly stated that she'd prefer to see union boss John Dougherty succeed than elect a candidate that's committed to real change like Larry Farnese. It seems that a vote for Anne Dicker truly is vote for John Dougherty.
I'm proud to work for the only candidate that has increased his share of the vote in the last two weeks. Larry's name recognition continues to grow and his favorable rating has increased by double digits.
While Larry still trails John Dougherty slightly in the polls, there are still over 20% of the voters that are undecided and we're within striking distance of winning. With the Inquirer endorsement, a strong communication plan in the upcoming days that includes network TV and your continued support we will succeed on April 22nd.
This race is tied.
With a margin of error of 4.5, Doc's real number could be as low as 25.5, Farnese's as low as 21.t and Dicker's as high as 25.5.
And that answer's Hannah's question about why Anne's numers dropped. It is, most likely, a statistical fluke.
What you all need to understand about statistics is that when you take a sample with a a margin of error +/- x, then assuming the confidence interval is 90%, you can be confident that in 90 out of 100 samples, the actual result will be somewhere in the range of the margin of error.
There is no good reason to think it is towards the upper or lower limit of the range.
If Farnese's numbers are right, this race is not over. Farnese's numbers give him a good chance to win if he has enough tv time booked. But Hannah's point is well taken, too. All the paid media in this race could get lost in the presidential race. So volunteers and money for E-day is critical. Doc is goign to have Local folks everywhere. However, much of the time they stand around and do very little. If they are really working for Doc, they could make a big difference.
Bull...
This is all total bull.
Dicker's support has "plummeted"?!? The margin of error in that poll is 4.5, meaning she could be at 25.5%, and so could Dougherty. Also, 30% still undecided!
And she's "reportedly" stated that she'd prefer to see Dougherty win? Also bull. She's obviously in it to win it, otherwise she wouldn't have fired her campaign manager a week before the election. From what I've heard, her people had a terrible strategy, and obviously suspicion of a rat.
They've got a new team now, increased fundraising, and lots of energy and volunteers.
This race is totally up in the air... and Anne Dicker still has a great shot at winning. She's what philly needs.
Part but not all of the "reportedly"
comes from emails from Anne's email address that focus relentlessly on Fumo and Farnese and are much more circumspect about John Dougherty, who she also needs to beat in order to actually win.
About the new team
Do you know who the new Campaing Manager is? Is it Alexi Vandenberg by any chance?
I see that he's part of Jack Morley's exploratory committee. Is that a conflict of interest? Political consultants for hire switch party all the time but its a tad unusual for a Dem primary challenger to hire someone on the exploratory committee for the Republican in the same race.
-Sean
MrLuigi, my cat, actually only types half as badly as I do.
Thanks for posting
This Farnese poll just makes more sense.
It actually doesn't make a lot of sense
How could Anne's percentage go down if no one is running any negative advertising against her?
You have to actively want to make voters leave their candidate. Anne's voters ain't going anywhere, they are newspaper readers who saw that famous "Forged Petition" Daily News cover, and they wouldn't migrate to Farnese based on TV ads.
That single problem calls into question everything else in this press release. Is this a forged poll?
more info on the Dicker poll
I've asked the Farnese folks to provide more info on their poll, but they at least share more details in their press release than you have about the Dicker poll in your post. can you share who the did the poll, when it was done, and how many were surveyed? we know most of those details about Doc's poll, and some of the details about Farnese's poll, but none about Dicker's (which, by the way, I am shocked to hear she did - her filings showed such little funds that she really shouldnt be spending funds on polling).
crosstabs
I have seen three polls now day, one from each campaign, and none have had crosstabs, so I am not sure how you can levy a charge about forgery Hannah without seeing details.
And for the record, the Farnese poll again shows HIGHER numbers for Anne than in the Dougherty poll, but less undecideds and more for Farnese.
What does this all mean? This race seems pretty fluid.
The most reliable metrics for Election Day success continue to be # of volunteers for e-day, the amount of cash on hand to boost name recognition in the next few days via the media and also cash t pay field workers, and the # of voters IDed already.
I dunno Ray
I think your chances of getting crosstabs out of any of the three campaigns are pretty slim. Unless of course either of Anne's opponents gets indicted anytime soon, and they are seized as evidence.
One could speculate
why her numbers dropped - but I think that the obvious reason is that her numbers weren't solid.
Dicker's numbers were based on folks having some recognition of her name - and knew they didn't like Dougherty.
Despite your attacks on Farnese - the voters are taking a liking to him.
But it's interesting that you save all your vitriol for Farnese - when according to Dougherty's poll - which you believe - Dougherty is the one that you have to beat.
This certainly dovetails with the last four days of her faltering campaign.
I'm confused
Anne's poll is a couple of weeks old at this point but people are talking about 3 polls. Are we talking about the new Dougherty commissioned poll Ceisler showed Anne on Saturday or is there a new poll somehow commissioned by Anne after Anne "fired" Karim and Matt? And does any of it really matter with that many undecideds open to whoever can afford to reach them in the last minute push, either with media or vollunteers?
-Sean
MrLuigi, my cat, actually only types half as badly as I do.
Capitol Wire
Apparently Capitol Wire has reported today that another poll was taken that has Farnese 2 points behind Doc with Anne back a bit at third.
Anyone have a subscription to Capitol Wire to find the piece? or know anything about it?