I have not had time yet to look through the election results fully, but there are a couple of cases worth noting:
* Retention of Judge Deni
A number of progressive orgs called for a "NO" vote on Judge Deni, yet looking at the numbers, it does not seem like she won by much lower of a percent than anyone else on the Municipal Court.
* Jesse Brown
18% is a pretty respectable number for an Independent challenger in a Democratic city in a General. However, Jesse Brown did not even come close to winning. Again, a number of progressives around town were supporting Jesse and I am curious what analysis they might offer of time and money spent on this race.
* David Oh
Wow. I am still in Kentucky (where we won big) but I imagine this race is far from decided yet. He's putting up a good fight, but it's worth noting that Oh did NOT get the support of a lot of progressives. Anyone want to speculate on why he has done so well?
* Montco
We lost a great woman's seat and replaced it with a man a lot of us like, Joe Hoeffel, but a man nonetheless in the minority. I think this race is the greatest tragedy of all (as it was really the best opportunity for progressives) and my sympathy to Lauren and Hannah and others who worked on the race as well.
* The Courts
We won two seats on the Supreme Court. Amazing! We won one Superior Court seat, and even better, it was won by the best candidate- Christine Donahue (congrats Lauren!) yet we did not get the other two. Why do you think we could win Supreme Court seats but not take all three Superior?
* Nutter
Two historic election victories in a row. Despite a comment made by Karen, I can't recall from my memory of Philadelphia history a Mayor who has gone into office with so much resounding support from such a diverse base. Now what?
Just some quick food for thought...Generally, I think progressives in Philadelphia still have a long way to go. I want to quote Marc Stier:
The question for progressives, then, is how to build an organization that not only has a mass base—which we are very far from right now—but that is also unified enough to actually rule—and we are a long way from that—without adopting the tools of patronage and money.
Those are the two challenges I see for the progressive movement.
Marc wrote the above in another post, and Tim, Short Schrift, made a really insightful reply:
I'm a progressive blogger, which is different thing from being a progressive politician, or a progressive political operative. It doesn't mean we don't share many of the same interests (with healthy disagreements too), but we have very different degrees of freedom, tools at our disposal, and intermediate goals. Ultimately, I'm more invested in supporting and being a part of a new group of young citizen/professional journalists than a new group of young (or not-so-young) politicians.
I guess I have a foot in both camps, but I feel much better about the health of the latter one Tim describes. (As an aside: this may seem semantic, but I don't think of myself as political operative or a politician. I am a political organizer who believes that everyday, busy people with solid and seperate professional identities have a key role to play in politics by volunteering their time.)
Progressive blogging are a much better fit for people who don't need politics for livelihood purposes in the most material way that patronage jobs provide.
Clearly we all need politics to serve use better, but the overwhelming need for change is much more manageable for a lot of us as opposed to putting our feet on the street or dollars collected.
Which, going back to this election, and echoing Marc's thoughts, is clearly something we need to see real electoral success. That said, it's not gonna happen just because we want it to.
John Baer's column today is worth reading
John Baer has declared the "reform" movement led by PACleanSweep dead
Personally, I'm glad. I'm sick of the whole post-pay-raise crowd having sway. I think he's right that the pay raise debacle is over. That said, I don't think Republicans should see this as an all clear. I think voters are in a mode for shifting priorities even still, and they don't really see the courts or the counties as the means to do that (and that's partly why turnout stunk so bad).
If the GOP doesn't give some more air to genuine progress Democrats would like to make at the state level, I think the power may still move further toward the center-left in Harrisburg.
Anyway, if Ray's post is meant to spark a discussion of where-do-we-go-from-here, I tend to support young people with energy finding ways to contribute to vibrant activity that's already taking place rather than start new campaigns or (God forbid) new Organizations.
Some examples of good stuff that's happening:
-- The Effort to Pass the Prescription for Pennsylvania (ahem).
-- SEIU's awesome contract win and coming fight with Aramark.
-- Casino Free Philadelphia.
-- Next year's elections (does it ever end? seriously?).
That's just some of it. Pitch in somewhere.
Building something new burns a lot of time and fuel. Pitch in. Stay true to our values and do good work. We can rise up within the existing structure and look out for each other and move the cause of real progressivism forward.
I guess what I'm really saying is: do whatever you want, but that's what I'm doing.
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The Russellian Incorporated Innovations Corporation
Lefty Homilies
"* David Oh Wow. I am still
"* David Oh
Wow. I am still in Kentucky (where we won big) but I imagine this race is far from decided yet. He's putting up a good fight, but it's worth noting that Oh did NOT get the support of a lot of progressives. Anyone want to speculate on why he has done so well?"
He did well because he was a strong candidate with good ideas and a reformist mindset. Anyone who's had a chance to hear the man speak could recognize that. There is no doubt that he had energetic support from many progressives/reform minded voters. To the progressives who sat on the sideline for this race, I say shame on you. You had a chance to make a vote that could've really made a difference in an election where literally every vote counted, but couldn't see beyond your partisan blind spot. If Jack (John Street crony, Johny Doc funded, Frank Keel represented) Kelly ends up stealing this election, those who sat this one out by voting straight ticket Dem bear a good amount of responsibility.
i should clarify
i guess what i am trying to say is that talking about electing candidates or defeating them is bot doing the trick. As much as I think an alternative media forum and meetings of selected groups of people is great and important, looking at the election returns is just further proof that there is not a corollary ground force to our online or even offline presence.
And Brady, I agree that starting something new or yet another coalition may not be the answer, but I challenge you to explain more about what you need. Are the groups you describe capable of being the non-patronage driven effort Marc suggests now? Why don't they already have more strength?
Have each other's backs
As a lot of you know, I'm not 100% against the old ways. I also have no interest in ideas. I like things to work well and people not to be screwed. I like a fair shake. I dislike oppression. If all that makes me a progressive, then I am. Sometimes I wonder, but I mostly think I am.
That said, if we all did good work and moved forward within the existing efforts and causes and thought a little bit more about helping each other move forward and a little less about who's-down-enough and who's-more-right and what-cause-is-leftiest enough of us might have enough clout one day that we could do some good.
In other words, I look pretty favorably on networks of allied people. Some people think that's a recipe for corruption. I don't really care. It works.
And, I don't mean working within the system. Just working within the existing framework that challenges the system, that's all.
And for those of you who aren't going to be a political professional, then you might spend some more time reading the websites of good organizations like the Unions and the little non-profits and writing about that and not focusing exclusively on what's in the news and what's hot now.
And you can give money. That never hurts.
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The Russellian Incorporated Innovations Corporation
Lefty Homilies
I agree with a lot of your
I agree with a lot of your sentiment, but, I think you are a little unneccesarily down on what this means for winning/losing:
Jesse Brown had an astronomically tough road to winning, and would have needed a ton of money, a huge campaign, etc. NN did what it could; I think expecting him to win, only on the basis of that, was nuts. But, I also don't think his defeat tells us a ton. Neighborhood Networks is not nearly as powerful as the Democratic party, and cannot make someone jump from little name recognition/little money to winning. In other words, Stan Shapiro does not equal Bob Brady. Is that a shock?
And, to defeat a judge would take a huge organized effort (when was the last time a judge in Philly was actually defeated?). A few progressive groups did something to try and defeat her, but again, I really don't think her loss says anything else other than to really acheive something electorally, you need a lot of boots on the ground, which we know.
So does that mean it can't be acheived? The hybrid- of progressive groups, along with boots on the ground- actually did win last night. But, her real win came in May, and I think that Maria in City Council, is no small thing and shows that a win can be had.
so let me clarify again
I know that victory is possible. In theory and in a few cases of practice. However, I am not sure I think Maria's race fits though into the mold of progressive electoral power, nor does Nutter's.
The question I am asking is if folks think there is such a thing as a progressive movement in this city, what quantitative impact did we have on this election?
The answer I think is little, and the question that makes me ask is whether or not changing that is a priority. If so, how?
Do I think there is a
Do I think there is a progressive movement? I think there are increasing numbers of progressive minded people interested in City politics.
Do I think progressives had an impact in the general election? Not really. But, I don't think a general election with basically no close races is a time where we would.
Can you change the power that progressive groups have? I hope so. How you do it, is something I leave up to people with better ideas than me, with better organizing ablilities. Like, you.
So, get to work. Thanks.
Progressives helped replace Jack Kelly with David Oh
if he indeed holds onto his 45 vote lead.
You may not agree with those progressives who voted for him, as I did, and you may not call him a progressive (as I too do not), but a bunch of us DID finally decide that he was preferable to Councilman Doolittle.
And, hell, if 45 or more YPPers were convinced by discussion here to support him, well Dan, I guess, You (and Ray) elected David Oh.
Helped, I mean.
I had people coming up to me at the Nutter party saying, "I saw what you wrote about David Oh on YPP and I voted for him," and I made maybe ONE pro-Oh comment. Weird. Mike Cunningham and the others who pushed Oh should take a bow.
There were lots of Oh supporters at the victory party, so his possible success doesn't surprise me much.
Some men see things as they are and say, “Why”? I dream of things that never were and say, “Why not”?
Robert Kennedy, 1968
more details sam
you make a good case, but close races are close for a reason. progressive voters may have tipped the scales for Oh (Kelly is gonna challenge the certification of the vote though right?), but did they create the greatly increased number of Oh voters compared to his last run or was that Oh and his GOTV in other communities?
I am looking for serious quantification here.
I don’t have strong
I don’t have strong numbers, but I would have to agree with Sam. I remember talking to progressives in Mt. Airy who are heavily involved in politics, and they were excited about Oh. In fact, I think that they thought that he was a Democrat at the time. I know that I voted for him because I saw him speak and liked what he had to say, and if we have to elect two republicans, we might as well have a choice in the matter.
Hard to quantify
until I see WHERE Oh's votes came from yesterday compared to his past run.
My guess--purely conjectural--is that a fair amount came out of places where Michael did well in the primary, the extended Center City that runs north to Fairmount and Fishtown, south to gentrifying South Philly on the eastside of Broad, maybe some of University City.
You know, white libs w/money or who aspire to money.
Oh was popular among a LOT of Center City-ites that I spoke to, and really seemed popular at my Bella Vista polling place where his supporters were the only reliable presence for most of the day.
I certainly admit that it's been my experience that Center City residents almost always imagine their effect on city elections as greater than it actually is. I recall stunned Unitarians walking around blinking after the 1999 election, saying, "I don't know HOW John Street could have won. I don't know ANYONE who voted for him."
Some people have never looked at North Philly, Northwest Philly, (or especially Northeast Philly) on a map. They're BIG.
But the area that identifies as CC or as CC-like has been growing. Many who live there identify as progressive of one sort or another (w/o even opening up the Bret Mandel can of worms, and I'll admit he hosted one of the Oh events I attended when I was making up my mind).
And I think it's likely that those voters, lured to the polls by their favorite mayoral candidate, played a significant role in pushing Oh (maybe) over the top.
Some men see things as they are and say, “Why”? I dream of things that never were and say, “Why not”?
Robert Kennedy, 1968
Oh clobbered Kelly
in my division. Just one example. But my gut feeling is that Sam is right.
Most of his votes came from Bill Greenlee who rain well behind the other at-large candidates.
I'm looking forward to the division numbers.
Progressive Blogosphere Flows Downhill
David Oh wasn't terribly far behind Kelly in the primary, but he was behind. Something changed between now and then, and at least part of it had to be Democrats and Independents crossing over.
Not all of those Democrats and Independents were likely progressives. Someone like David Oh has a terrific appeal for pro-business, national party, Democratic Leadership Council types who wouldn't self-identify as progressives. Plus, his appeal as the only Asian candidate for council can't be discounted.
But, you know, David Oh also got endorsed by the Inquirer, which holds a much bigger sway over city Republicans, Independents, and moderates than over progressives. And the story there, which was also the story here, was that Jack Kelly is a nice guy who likes animals but is a bit of a lightweight, AND that some people in the majority party liked him just where he's been. And I bet more than a few Republicans looked around and said, you know what? They're right. Why are we voting for this guy?
The blogosphere, including YPP, helped contribute to that frame -- even if the whole inclusionary housing spat was a detour that probably went nowhere. The relationship progressives have to the in-the-cloud media may not exactly be the one that many of us would like to have to on-the-ground city politics, but the effects can be real (if not necessarily quantifiable).
--Tim
Exceptions
I should add, not EVERYTHING flows downhill, at least all the way to voters. If anyone outside the progressive community paid attention to the Deni scandal, it didn't change the way they voted -- probably because assaulting trans sex workers still sadly doesn't outrage the majority of the electorate, including Democrats.
--Tim
And like i said
i believe in the progressive blogospehere, I am a part of it. But it was the Inky still holds more sway over more voters than YPP, and as much as we may have some influence on the Inky, I think they they would have endorsed Oh even if we had not been here. That's not a disagreement with you Short, but it's the point that we need more than a blog and an influence on media to elect people.
Do they still sell the Inquirer in the city?
I thought it was distributed strictly in the suburbs.
The Philadelphia Inquirer of Voorhees, that's what it's called now, isn't it?
Some men see things as they are and say, “Why”? I dream of things that never were and say, “Why not”?
Robert Kennedy, 1968
Sex workers and LGBT issues
I think Tim is touching on a really good point here. Sometimes progressives or whatever think that all they need to do is talk to enough people about our issues and we will win. We also have to persuade people that we are right. One of the things that I appreciate about Young Philly Politics is that it helps me hone my arguments when I am talking with friends, family, and other people who don't seem themselves as progressive. We can't imagine that our base is larger than it really is.
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Check out my website!
It's all about the sample ballots
Was someone passing out that strange ballot that had Nutter, Blondell, Oh and Bernie Strain? Was that someone from local 98?
Helping David Oh
I know for a fact that part of David Oh's strategy this time was to appeal to progressive Democrats and Independents and ask for a crossover vote. I am proud to say that I am one of those Democrats. David went to the right places to ask people for their vote and if he is on City Council he will be a positive force, certainly better than Jack Kelly. I talked to him and was pleased to hear how he intended to behave on council. I told my friends to vote for him, and I was asked to vote for him by people whom I trust.
In a City like Philly liberals and progressives need to leverage our influence in the places where we can make a difference. Particularly in the fight against corruption. This is one of those places we can, and did make a difference. My only regret is that we didn't try harder to make a bigger one.
Don't let the Perfect be the Enemy of the Good.-Howard Dean
yes and no
If that's your question, I think there is, if disparate, a progressive movement but it wasn't all that pumped about this particular Tuesday.
Hell, I don't get why judges are such a big deal. I wish they were just appointed. I've never felt so ill informed looking at a ballot in my life as I was on Tuesday, and I don't think that's going to change.
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The Russellian Incorporated Innovations Corporation
Lefty Homilies
Playing my broken record
Not to disparage those who worked so hard on Jesse's campaign - I commend them - but I think the results show that what happened in the 8th is just another example that in Philly, "progressives" will not gain political power unless they focus specifically on forming linkages across racial and class lines.
I'm still waiting to see an organization that will look at making such bridges, independent of any particular candidacies, and perhaps independent of any particular issues, their top priority.
Wasn't the Jesse Brown campaign an example of
forming linkages across racial and class lines? Look at the candiadte and his leading supporters.
Jesse had almost no money despite the efforts of Irv Ackelsburg and a few others to help him.
What was disappointing to some of Jesse's supporters was that most of the volunteers came from NN and friends of Irv.
It is, as I have said before, incrediby hard for even African American progressives to mobilize and organize their own community.
Haile Johnston has some ideas about how to solve the problem. And my understanding is that he is going to try to build a NN chapter in North Philadlephia. To my mind, that is the most important bit of organizing that is going to happen in the next year in the next year--not because it is NN but because it is North Philly. At this point, could care less about the name. When Hailie tells us he is ready to go and needs some money and person power, I hope we all answer his call.
But isn’t that the point.
But isn’t that the point. Wasn’t the coalition to elect Jesse Brown mostly middle classed and White? How much coverage was there for him in working class Black communities? My scouting says that there wasn’t any. Mr. V was at my polling place, and I do live in East Mt. Airy, but there are also 4 divisions at my polling place, and it is right on the border between east and west Mt Airy.
Understand that friends come and go, but with a precious few you should hold on. Work hard to bridge the gaps in geography and lifestyle, because the older you get, the more you need the people who knew you when you were young. ~ Mary Schmich
And even more than that
Yes, to some extent the campaign was about people reaching across racial and class lines; and that's great.
But I think that such efforts will always have limited effectiveness unless building those bridges becomes a prioritized effort. If folks show up to bridge the gaps within the context of a specific campaign, they will always be viewed as suspect. If folks first show up to build bridges, when they come back to discuss a specific campaign they will have some credibility.
I think the key is to examine who votes for DRM. Of those people, how many of them have meaningful contact with "progressives?" How many of them are inherently suspicious of whites pushing a candidate - even if that candiate is black? How many of them see voting for DRM as a vote for racial solidarity?
Obviously, the fact that Jesse had a lot of white, progressive support isn't what cost him the election so much as DRMs entrenched power structure - but the question I'm asking is how much impact can white progressives have in reaching DRMs supporters. Unless you dismantle her support, she will keep winning. And you're not going to dismantle her support unless you address the racial divides head on.
The 8th was only one race; so, how does it generalize to other races? Hard to say, but I still believe that racial and economic divides will continue to undermine the political influence of progressives unless those divides are met head on - in a context divorced from particular candidates if not particular issues. It's about building community first.
NN getting a chapater in North Philly is probably a great start. Sign me up for the effort to make that happen. But I sure hope that it is focused on creating links more than it is on promoting specific candidates - particularly if a main cog in the initative is a pol.
You are short changing the power of the party
Miller did not win because she has a base of support. She may have one, and it may have helped, but she won because she is a Democrat. Brady says above that this was a tough race for him because he did not know who half the judges are. Well, guess what, a lot of people don't really know who DRM is. Maybe they have heard their name, but they don't really know what she does or how good or bad she is at her job.
This lack of information, or knowledge or confidence that it even matters who your City Council person is, or your judges, or even your Mayor means that some people just don't vote at all, and some just vote the party ticket because they know Dems are better than Republicans.
The only way to change this is to get more people up to speed on races. A lot of this happens through the media, but we have a local media that has greatly reduced its political staff. My guess is it what would take 5 or 6 or more stories about a race to get people to pay enough attention or to understand what is going on to even know who Jesse Brown is. He got some play for sure, but not enough.
Paid media on TV is not an option for most local races, but mailings are. It takes about 3-4 mailings and 3-4 phone calls and at least 1 or 2 door knocks to make a dent in people's perceptions about down ballot races (and even top of the ticket races like a Mayoral primary).
Who amongst the progressive movement has that kind of power locally?
This is not meant to be a gloom and doom perspective, but some realistic goal setting has to occur. And, as Tim points out, this is a group of progressive bloggers. Some of us blog and organize, but the power of this blog is mostly about media and that is a fine and good and important role. I am just musing out loud (or online as it were) about the other components of a system that need to be built.
Big and little changes
I think what's happening now isn't so atypical; the media is changing faster than politics. The internet is still in its adolescence. The printing press, newspapers, the radio, and television all changed politics, but only when they reached a certain maturity. The internet has really just started to change national politics, but it's completely changed the way a great many people follow politics. The internet has started to change the way people follow local politics; it will take some time to change local politics itself.
I'm not really talking about highly visible changes. You can go to Hallwatch (or other sites), type in your address and find your polling place AND see a list of all of your elected officials. That's an incredible change -- something the newspaper and television (and in some cases, even door-to-door volunteers) couldn't do. The May primary was the first time I ever brought a sample ballot to my polling place that I'd printed out myself on a computer. That's a pretty big change. The odds seem to be pretty good that, in time, as more people gain access and web-literacy, anyone remotely interested in politics will be unlikely to vote for a candidate at a rank as high as city council or attorney general just because their name sounds like the name of somebody who ran ten or twenty years ago.
All of those things have the potential to effect some pretty significant changes in city politics. The question is who, both on the politician side and on the citizen side, will be best able to take advantage of them.
--Tim
Good points, Ray, but
At least with respect to yesterday's election. It does seem valid to say that her victory was mostly because of Party affiliation.
On the other hand, she wouldn't have won in the Dem primary without her base of support; progressive candidates have a lot of trouble gaining any tracion in Lower Germantown. I've been to meetings where she has been there with a very strong group of supporters, and to a massively attended meeting where everyone there knew exactly who she is and will vote for her against anyone that isn't connected to them on a personal level as she is.
I agree that the media plays a role - but I see that role as being largely limited in this kind of situation. How much of a media advantage did she have in the Dem primary? I think the media only go so far, and that real progress can only be made through a systematic attempt to create a person-to-person network. In that sense, knocking on doors and mailing may be more effective, but again I think to a limited extent. I don't think that even if progressives had the ability to knock on doors and send out mailings on a massive scale, it would chip away enough of the block of support she counts on; those methodologies are too impersonal also.
I know I have a one track mind on this issue, and that my beginning orientation shapes how I intepret the way events unfold. And I don't know how valid it is to generalize from the situation in a Councilmanic race in Germantown to other races and different parts of the city; but I still think that "expanding the base" of progressives is only going to happen through a concerted effort to overcome class and race divisons through personal contact.
DE, I agree with you in the
DE, I agree with you in the sense that certainly there needs to be strong outreach efforts. That said, I think you are greatly overstating the base of power that Donna Miller has, and because are you trying to extrapolate out from her, I think you conclusions are somewhat off.
Miller won with 30ish percent of the vote. For an incumbent, that is extremely low. She also had the backing of just about every party official there was, was steered tens of thousands of dollars from judicial contributions, had a massive, massive team in the streets on election day (courtesy of Dwight), etc. If she had any sizable base, she would not have barely eked out an election. (Heck, if Dwight Evans was not running for Mayor, she probably would not have won.) With a base, long-term incumbency, and the support of the entire party, she would have killed everyone. But she did not, because she does not have a big base of power. Does she have some loyal supporters? Of course. How could she not, after 12 years in office, and years before that doing constituent services, etc. But, as someone who spent many hours talking to people in the 8th, including in parts of her 'base,' there was very little knowledge of who the hell she even was.
Second, the media can play an important role. In fact, one of the reasons why the party-heavy candidates in the Mayoral race can be taken on is that it is a high information election, both in paid media, and news media. When I was walking around many of the places you are talking about, no one knew who my dad was, virtually no one knew who Donna Miller was, but just about everyone knew who Nutter was, Fattah was, etc. The media can play a big, big role in making a low information race a high one.
Some of the "Not Knowing" Is Playing Dumb
Some of the people who claim not to know about a candidate are just playing dumb to end or shorten a conversation in order to preserve privacy and/or get onto something else. A lot of the time, it is a mistake to take that kind of statement literally.
I have found that anyone who can draw someone out about a candidate that the voter claims not to know anything about will often find a welter of knowledge and opinions about the candidate if a conversation is held in a friendly, relaxed and non-threatening, non-judgmental manner.
A lot of people need cues that what they are saying will not be used against them or anyone else before they are comfortable admitting knowledge.
Nah
I mean that makes sense and I am sure is true in a lot of contexts; there are a lot of ways that who you support or oppose can be sensitive.
But being out with Dan dropping lit for his dad, it was clear that the council race was just not on people's radar. You'd have conversations where, once the person was prompted to put the pieces together (DRM + city council + district 8 + contested primary + the issues that were meaningful to them), a light would go on. But the default in meeting people was that if they knew about DRM (and lots did, and had strong feelings) they didn't know exactly what her role was, or that she was up for reelection. And if they knew Irv, they wouldn't necessarily know of him as a potential challenger to DRM.
Anyway, given all that, I thought Jesse's numbers were pretty decent, given the very short time frame, very little money, and the party affiliation weirdness.
I am very confident that without so many people splitting the vote against her, and with a longer runup to the election if it is someone like Irv who is coming with limited name recognition, that she will be voted out.
You guys are making it tough for me to formulate my conclusions
and then build the rationale to support them.
Ok, but here's something else to consider. The question is: How can progressives build their base? Well, they need to add from somewhere. My contention is that the only way that's going to happen is through person-to-person contact.
Yes, Miller won with only 30ish pecent of the vote. But that 30ish percent was her base, and it was bigger than the base of the other candidates. Let's assume tbat between Cindy and Irv, Irv was the "progressive." What would have happened had Bass not run? Would more of her votes gone to Irv than to DRM? I don't have any hard evidence, but I tend to doubt it.
People say that DRM won the primary because there were too many candiates - a matter of circumstance. Maybe, but I'm still waiting to see that progressives are garnering an increasing electoral influence. As I see it, she won because she had the biggest base, and she will continue to have the biggest base until progressives find a way to break her base down and take votes away from her. Or, by getting people who currently don't vote to start voting (and that excludes Upper/middle class white liberals who are already voting). You're not going to get someone who has been voting for her to vote for somone else if you don't establish credibility, and you're not going to get the vote from someone who hasn't been voting despite all the media and other influences that already exist, unless you bring something new to the table.
The only way that I see progressives gaining electoral influence is by garnering more black and/or working class votes. Upper/middle class white progressives already vote, and they already vote for progressives. Where else is the increased power going to come from?
Maybe TV adds or knocking on doors will get more votes, but first of all, progressives don't have the resources to make a big splash in that way, and secondly, I don't think that those impersonal channels are going to be effective anyway. And thirdly, I don't think that the expanding power of IT is going to reach those voters either.
Am I just missing something here? Am I just too thick-headed to get it?
I agree Josh
You say:
So far progressives have tried this through phone banks, mailings and door visits with targeted voters. You can get to know someone through these kinds of interactions, but that's not as organic as the other ways we get to know people in life: school, work, family, neighbors, church, member orgs, bars, myspace/match.com/gay.com etc.
The problem is that many of these networks or methods for getting to know people are heavily race and class separated. Like duh, but in reality making social and/or organic connections to people who are of a different race or class than you is hard, especially within the short time frame of an election.
Huge problem. Not sure how to deal.
Longer term
If you want be able to use networks and social connections to win elections, then you have to naturally make those connections and then use them when you are involved in an election. You tell your friends and family who you support and your opinion matters to them, that is part of building a movement. I don't think you can artificially build enough of those connections within a single campaign. I also think that it is part of the reason that candidates like Maria Sanchez won, you should have seen what it was like going to a bar in their district with her or Tomas even a year ago, everyone wanted to say hello.
believe that our party has made the most difference in people's lives and the life of this country when we have led not by polls but by principle; not by calculation but by conviction; -Barack Obama
Ph
It's hard to argue with roma
It's hard to argue with roma on this one. As I posted on this blog a week ago, we're going to get two Republicans on council anyway, so we may as well make it count and get someone who is going to shake up the status quo.
I know lots of progressive/liberal dems who supported and voted for David because we wanted to have someone in that seat who would approach the entire system differently. This wasn't about Jack Kelly being a bad guy (or even a bad councilman) cause IMO, he wasn't. This was about supporting someone who will look some of these lifers and say "Councilmanic privledge? I got your councilmanic privledge right HERE". That's what is so refreshing about him.
I never really understood yellow dog Dems. Maybe it's because I was a registered independent for so long. Or because I was raised in a staunchly conservative community. Or because I blame Democrats as much as Republicans when it is deserved. But everyone and every group has a right to support or deny their support to whomever they choose. That's just the nature of a flawed process.
Votes for DRM
I hold to what I said in my own blog: that the main source for DRM's votes was the big Democratic lever; people voting a straight Democratic ticket. DRM really didn't even bother to run a campaign; her signs appeared on election day both for the primary + general elections.
-Z
Suburbs
I was out in the burbs on election day. And, in addition to seats like county commissioner, etc., it seems the R kept control of a large number of township and municipal seats (school board, council and supervisor).
After talking with both Ds and Rs at the polls, I'm convinced that the Rs retained control of so many of these seats because they wised up. They were at the polls talking about purely local concerns and were able to satisfy voters with those concerns, i.e., quality of services and stable tax rates. I believe they have figured out how to explain to voters that Bush and Cheney are pretty much irrelevant to how garbage is collected in say, East Norriton, or the libraries in Upper Merion. And, 2008 races may be more difficult as a result.
I'd be interested to see how much money Mike Fitzpatrick has raised and if he is going to challenge Patrick Murphy.
I am working to elect Larry Farnese to the General Assembly. Unless otherwise expressly stated, this and every comment or blog I post on YPP and any action I take hereon is solely attributable to me and not Farnese or Friends of Farnese
Montco
The other countywide row offices went from 9-0 Republican to 5-4 Democratic. Landsale, Hatfield, and Whitemarsh flipped to the D's. Conshohocken Council, under Republican control two years ago, is now, at worst, 5-2 Democratic, and a lot drawing away from a 6-1 margin.
With lower ticket results such as these, the commissioners' race should have been won. But candidates and campaigns matter.
More on Montco
I think the biggest issues in the GOP keeping control of the Commissioners race in Montco were the facts that even though it is dwindling, there are still more Republicans than Democrats in Montco, and Damsker had the least name recognition of the four candidates (perhaps tying with Matthews in this regard, though the GOP higher voter registration wiped out the value of this possible name recognition tie).
Fitzpatrick has already
Fitzpatrick has already announced he won't challenge Murphy. At least according to http://www.campaigndiaries.com/houserankings.html.
But on Tuesday, the situation in the burbs was too bad. Gives me some worry about the counties come Novermber 2008. Especially if Rudy is the Republican.
Bucks
I was up in Bucks county on election day, and I have to say that although I am disappointed by the outcome it was close enough to give me hope. Not only was Diane in second place, but Steve lost by about 1.5% that is really a good result.
Don't let the Perfect be the Enemy of the Good.-Howard Dean
Philly for Obama
Fitzpatrick
He hasn't explicitly said he's not running. But he has terminated his fundraising committee.
Re David Oh:
Re David Oh:
Two big things. One, not unlike Maria Quinones Sanchez, Oh's a plainly more substantively qualified candidate and is someone who it appears gets the support of a lot of people who know and like him through community service - well outside the realm of bloggers, political commentators and self-conscious progressives. He came in quite close to Kelly in the primary and clearly with endorsements from the Black Clergy and Jerry Mondeshire, Oh is known and liked in circles that Jack Kelly could never hope to draw cross party votes from. I think based on that alone the race in the general election would have been much tighter than the primary was. Beyond all that there are so few Republicans in Philadelphia that numerically just a few "strategic Dem voters" could make a huge difference in the quality of City Council as a whole.
So in terms of replacing Jack Kelly, a "nice guy" but piece of legislative dead wood and long time Street/bi-party patronage crony, with a potentially strong partner in ethics reform, economic development thats accessable to ALL Philadelphians, and fixing our in many ways broken local criminal justice system - supporting David Oh was strategically "low hanging fruit" and frankly I'm surprised even more progressives didn't recognize this.
I'm not saying he would line up with us (left-of center good government progressives) 100% on these issues in the future but in substantive ways Oh's reform-minded "outside the mold" centerist Republican outlook has significant areas of potential overlap for interesting coalition building on Council that simply aren't there with Kelly in that seat. At worst where we we left-of-center good government progressives and Oh disagree, he'll at least be someone who brings well thought out pragmatic ideas to the table and be more than a "nice guy" but underwhelming legislator who basically cruises on being "from North East" and having a patrician last name.
Two - Oh is strong on crime, inclusive economic development, reducing the waste of the patronage machine. Um in this year of all years, why wouldn't that appeal to voters? I mean, duh.
So I think its substance not GOTV which is difficult to marshall effectively anyway in a complicated cross-party scenario that made the difference.
Interesting Times Ahead
I think the questions of what public policies David Oh stands for, and what public policies many of his supporters stand for, is very much up in the air. There should be interesting times ahead in City Council should Oh maintain his lead and take office.