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Fire John Timoney!
Submitted by Dan U-A on Thu, 01/04/2007 - 10:39pm.
Dear Mayor of Miami, whoever you are:
You must fire Policy Police Commissioner John Timoney. I know he is really popular, and personable, and all that jazz, but, according to a Channel 6 News report I saw today, murders in Miami went up a staggering 28 percent in 2006. What the hell is he doing down there?
OK, I am being slightly facetious, but, considering that under Timoney murders in Miami are sky-rocketing, I am not sure the "I will bring John Timoney back to Philly" line that some Mayoral candidates are spouting really means a whole lot.
Source?
Dan, where did you get that info about Miami? Here's what I've read:
http://www.phillymag.com/articles/from_the_editor_december_2006
We also heard another typical sort of Philadelphia denial: Yes, things are bad, but they’re bad all over. That’s what U.S. Representative Bob Brady announced after his recent summit on gun violence, and that’s what police commissioner Sylvester Johnson keeps maintaining: “This is a national problem.” Well, not quite. Yes, there are other cities, like Milwaukee, with an increase in gun violence. But let’s look at the cities we’re most comparable to — and the ones that have turned things around. New York’s murder rate was 8.36 per every 100,000 people in 2001; it’s now 6.64. Los Angeles was at 15.62 in 2001; under Bratton, the police chief who engineered the New York turnaround in the early ’90s, it’s down to 12.63. Chicago was losing 22.88 of every 100,000 citizens to murder in 2001; under superintendent of police Philip J. Cline, it’s down to 15.59. Under Timoney, Miami is now at 13.91, down from 19.93 before his arrival in 2002. Here in Philadelphia, we’re trending the wrong way. When Timoney left, our murder rate was 18.89 per 100,000. It now stands at 25.6, and it is rapidly rising.
Just for 2006
Vernon Odom, 6 O'clock News on 6ABc, said Philly's rate in 06 went up six percent, NY went up 8 percent, Boston went up 12 percent and Miami went up by the whopping 28 percent.
Can you imagine?
If Philadelphia had a murder rate comparable to New York, we'd have under 100 murders a year. I know it's a lot more complicated than that since New York also has a higher proportion of middle to upper class people among their 8 million residents, but it's a a nice little thought experiment.
Of course, if New York had Philly's murder rate, they'd have over 2000 murders a year.
No real point to this comment except to hope for something better. While I'm at it, I may as well wish for 0 murders.
Anyway...
Miami and Philadelphia Crime Statistics
While I do not have access to 2006 data, below is a history of murder rate data for Miami, Philadelphia, All Principal Cities, and All Suburbs. Source (1992, 1997-2004): State of Cities Data System (SOCDS) http://socds.huduser.org/FBI/screen1.odb?metro=cbsa .
Source (2005): FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/offenses/standard_links/city_agency.html .
Murder Rates per 100,000 Population
Notes: 2005 Murder rate includes Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter.
Miami Population in 2005 was 376,815 (http://www.fedstats.gov).
Philadelphia Population in 2005 was 1,463,281 (http://www.fedstats.gov).
I would suggest that crime data be considered over a period of time, not based on a one-year change, as this does not establish a pattern.
A bit more scrounging
has shown that indeed, there was a spike in the murder rate in Miami over the past year;
http://www.timesleader.com/mld/miamiherald/news/nation/16272696.htm?sour...
however, I'm not sure that murder rates are necessarily the best way to judge police commissioners either-way. Short-term and medium term murder rates are one valid measure, for sure, but obviously, there are a lot of variables involved that extend beyond the specific circumstances of a particular city, and beyond both short-term and medium-term periods under a particular commissioner.
Of course, if we do use that kind of data, we can come up with some interesting implications about Bush's tenure.
DE, I agree with you that
DE, I agree with you that there are a bunch of different variables, and a bunch of different measures and time periods you should use to judge police commissioners. And frankly, I don't think I know enough about Johnson to really say. (Did you know, for example, that he still uses the same CitiStat thing that brought Timoney acclaim?)
My point, while maybe being a little too flippant, is basically similar to what you are saying. And magically bringing in Timoney may or may not increase the quality of life of Philadelphians, especially if you are using the only metric that everyone uses for Johnson- the annual murder rate.