Presidential Withdrawals Keep Mounting

We have not even reached the upcoming Democratic South Carolina primary yet, and already the Presidential withdrawals are mounting.

On the Republican side, former Senator Fred Thompson today joined Congressmen Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter on the Republican side in the withdrawal column. Democratic Senators Joe Biden, head of the Foreign Relations Committee, and Chris Dodd, head of the Banking Committee, have already withdrawn.

Withdrawals have a cumulative effect, both forcing onetime middle tier candidates into the bottom tier and making withdrawals more socially acceptable and politically predictable.

The safest prediction is that the number of withdrawals will continue to mount, making the Pennsylvania Presidential primary an increasingly exclusive affair. The filing date for the Pennsylvania primary is February 12, so that anyone who withdraws before then will not be on the ballot in Pennsylvania. Some candidates on the verge of withdrawal may also choose not to file, or lack the organizational will to file.

The only hope

The only hope for PA voters is that the candidates keep trading off wins so that there's a real competition until late in the season. Is this likely? I'm not sure. Had Obama followed up his Iowa win w/a commanding victory in NH, then it's possible he could have wrapped this up right then and there. But, if he + Clinton keep alternating wins, anything's possible. And don't count John Edwards out, what with his expected strength in the southern states which have yet to vote.

Full disclosure: I support Barack Obama for the Presidency, + feel that he has the chance to be precisely the kind of dynamic, inspirational leader that the US needs if we want to avoid becoming yet another empire which rises, makes a great name and noise for itself, + then fades into oblivion. He has the potential, just by being who he is, to change the way a lot of the world looks at the US. Would Clinton or Edwards do the same?

A Clinton win, as has been well noted elsewhere, would mean that a member of one of two families has occupied the Presidency or Vice Presidency for up to 36 years (1980-2016). Yes, a woman President would be, in and of itself, a huge difference.

What about Edwards? I agree w/Dan U-A that he says all the right progressive things. But wouldn't another southern male President look, to the outside world, like just more of the same?

I hope that the residents of Pennsylvania have a chance to make their voices heard in what should be the most important Presidential election in decades.

-Z

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