I think this was a good overall day for the progressive community. First, Tony Payton wins. Thank goodness. Thank goodness. Thank goodness. This was defense against the machine, and Tony won pretty big.
I was in that district today, and a big credit has to go to Laborers' Union. They were everywhere for Tony, and actively engaged in what they were doing.
Thank goodness.
Larry Farnese wins. Also, thank goodness.
More as it comes, but a big congratulations to Vanessa Brown, Kenyatta Johnson, Larry Farnese and Tony Payton.
Despite my general immaturity level, and the heated nature of some of these races, I have little desire to rub these victories in. (OK, I will probably mention Marge Tartaglione at some point, but not Guy Lewis.) Seeing my old man lose up close and personal has certainly made me realize how rough it is to be a candidate for office, and how rough it is to lose.
amen.
....
Good all the way around
One interesting thing and a good sign is how Farnese won. Its too early to do a detailed analysis but it appears to be in Center City. Normally I'm all about the neighborhoods getting more clout but in this instance basically some significant parts of the old Fumo ward structure defected to Doc and Farnese won big with Center City undecideds. This means that while Farnese has his ties to the old Fumo empire, he also knows his bread is buttered to a large extent by not falling flat on the "reform" and "anti-corruption" campaign rhetoric. He has some extra incentive to at least make an extra effort to live up to those words, which is good. I'd rather have someone who's gone on the record about pursuing the right kind of policies instead of campaigning on no policy at all.
Is Farnese the next generation Fumocrat? Yes. Is he fully aware that a lot of his victory is specifically dependent on the Nuttery-leaning end of that political universe? I think so. Thats good news.
-Sean
MrLuigi, my cat, actually only types half as badly as I do.
Larry has been working hard for years...
I think that many people already knew Larry, given the fact that he's been out on corners and in meetings introducing himself to people downtown and in S. Philly (i.e. Babette's house district) for years now. I have to believe that his pavement pounding, along with the Inky endorsement, is what pushed him over the top. Unlike Anne, people in the district have met Larry, and have seen him around for years.
Congrats to Larry, Tony, and all the rest! It really is an exciting time for Politics in Philly!
Another thing with Larry....
When I was working with Damon we asked Larry for some advice. I swear he knew every building in center city, every block association, tenant group, etc. It doesn't hurt to actually know your district...
tactical note
also ran a last minute anti-anne phonebank/canvass in 2,5, maybe 15. tactically speaking, it was a good move, whoever came up with that one. the devil's in the details...
anti-Anne?
I doubt many of the people who voted for Larry or Doc really knew anything about her. At any rate how much of Anne's terrible showing are you trying to attribute to a "last minute" phonebank/canvass?
Anne didn't lose because of a lack of attention to details(though I would guess that would help). Anne lost because her shallow attempts to paint herself as a "progressive" "reformer" were seen through by some, while other people I'm guessing had no idea who she was, or why she should get elected.
What are you talking about?
I don't recall an anti-Anne phone bank or canvass. Perhaps I was too busy preparing for election day and ensuring that voters had the ability to vote their choice without fear or intimidation, but I doubt it.
Perhaps you don't know this, but those who are legitimately trying to win a race take shots at the front runner. Not the 2nd or 3rd place candidate. We knew Doc was in first. We knew that we were in second--and a close second (4 points or so) going into the last week (poll taken pre-Inky endorsement). We also knew that Anne, who had been in the race the longest (since August) was in 3rd and falling.
We focused our final efforts in closing any gap between us and Doc. That is why we continued to canvass, morning visability, and went onto network TV. If Anne was truly in second place, she would have been doing the same thing--or, given her limited resources, at least trying to do the same thing.
The best tactical move Larry made was to work hard at every facet of campaigning and hiring our excellent and amazing staff.
I am proudly working to elect Larry Farnese to the General Assembly. Unless otherwise expressly stated, this and every comment or blog I post on YPP and any action I take hereon is solely attributable to me and not Farnese or Friends of Farnese.
The compliment wasn't
The compliment wasn't directed at you, Gaetano.
But you sure do know how to collect petition signatures!
Let's not be too hasty
As a Center City resident, I don't want to start singing Larry's praises yet. I think he needs a lot of discussion with people about issues that matter, expanding his views on public schools for example, as well as not being so vocal about slamming the progressive ideals from the voters who brought him into office (if your ward analysis is correct). He's better than his opponent, but his record is yet to be determined.
Wow.
I'm proud that Larry is my friend and going to be my next State Senator! He worked so hard that he truly deserved to give that great victory speach last night. The only Larry Farnese I know is smart, analytical and progressive. We're going to have a great State Senator.
The last few weeks came with some highs and lows. Obviously, the best high was at the end. I realized we had a great shot at winning when Larry and I were down in my own neighborhood, written off as Doc land due to the Ward leader and State Rep. supporting him. The next weekend, we were in Rittenhouse and person after person told us that Larry was their choice. The reception in most parts of the distric was great.
I always knew that beating Doc was important. We (the staff and some volunteers) have lived with Doc's (or his people's) threats and intimidation for weeks. Yesterday, nothing could prepare me for how important it was to beat Doc. I co-chaired and coordinated our legal efforts throughout the day. When two of my lawyers, and friends (including a YPP blogger), were threatened with physical violence at a polling place when they went with the sole intention of insuring the laws were being properly adhered to, and then were chased by numerous folks in Dougherty tee-shirts, it became clear as day--there is no choice, we had to beat this guy. Stories of intimidation and threats to our staff and volunteers would fill this blog post. We (our campaign staff of 4-5 and numerous volunteers) showed yesterday and the weeks before that we're tougher than our opponents, even with all their man/woman power and money.
Folks, the voters made the decision on what kind of progressivism they wanted to see. Folks on this blog like Mr. Luigi (Sean), Dan UA, Ray, Jennifer and others like Marc Andy Toy realized the importance of this race on the lives of so many. Thank you for supporting us. Councilmen DiCicco and Kenney were similarly amazing and it was nice to be on a winning team that included them.
There is a lot of time to decompress this race so I will not get into details. As many of you know, I've been working with Larry for a year and a half now. In every instance, Larry has been honest, upfront and straight with me--even when we've disagreed. We've become good friends and someone who I would go to the mat for. For now, I'm still too tired to do much thinking.
I worked, along with some very amazing people, including Renee Gillinger, Brian Abernathy, Mike Luce, Mark Dann, Dave Faison and many, many others, to elect Larry Farnese to the General Assembly. Unless otherwise expressly stated, this and every comment or blog I post on YPP and any action I take hereon is solely attributable to me and not Farnese or Friends of Farnese.
Wow x infinity
I can't really believe it. Gaetano worked really hard on this, and I think to a good end (in the end).
(Though this...
...is a dark-side moment that seems like it could have come from a Hannah Miller press release.)
Regardless of heavy-handed newspaper symbolism, I think and hope that with Fumo soon in jail the Fumo 'machine' will not be so monolithic as all that. I also hope Larry recognizes that while his victory has a lot to do with the money he got directly and indirectly from Fumo, he also won because people like Dan and Joey Sweeney and tons of others who don't have their own internet platforms wanted someone who was not Vince Fumo or John Dougherty. And in an imperfect field of choices, John Dougherty seemed more like Vince Fumo than Larry did, despite everything Anne Dicker said.
One other thing
The other week I gave a little money to a girl who was canvassing my block for Working America, an AFL-CIO organization. They were promoting national healthcare, increased minimum wage, all that.
Yesterday I was pretty shocked when I got a call from them telling me to make sure I voted for John Dougherty. I told the guy that I had already voted, and not for him. And that I was pretty shocked that they were calling and had thrown their support behind Dougherty. Since, though Dougherty runs a union, he has not exerted that leadership on behalf of the majority of working Philadelphians, particularly minorities, has fought campaign finance reform, backed Santorum.
It really does blow my mind that will all the money and all the big clean-cut white guys in tshirts outside the polls and all the turmoil in the race for this seat, Dougherty lost. That's pretty huge.
Can we reign this in?
It's shocking yes that Doc lost. But then again it isn't.
Elections are pretty simple: you ID your supporters in advance of the election, and then you turn them out. When Gaetano says he worked hard this is what he means, or at least that's what it means for Renee Gilinger who ran Farnese's field program.
Farnese knocked on thousands of doors, and had canvassers out too. He found his supporters and got them to the polls.
Doc put dozens of people at polling places, and in this election where we expected high turnout for Obama, that might have made a difference, but generally it is waste of time and is a weird ego thing that a lot of Philly politicians engage in (despite lack of evidence that is in any way effective). Beyond that, he spent a lot of money on polls, signs, food, billboards, tshirts and more. But without a plan to actually move his supporters to the polls at a vote-by-vote level, he could not win. And if you were around yesterday, you could see that that was not happening, though in all fairness, Doc came awfully close.
And it's true there was a media frame in this race, and that helped turn out the vote. But, looking to the future, there will never be this much media attention paid to a local race for a long time to come--Doc and Fumo's battles have been red meat to political reporters for years and this was the final battle royale. Which means that if progressives want to elect people, they are not gonna gave as much media to use, and they really need to start getting serious about Campaigning 101 techniques, which require organic grassroots support or enough money to pay canvassers to ID voters and turn them out on Eday.
And this is what I have always liked best about Larary Farnese. He gets that.
I was VOCALLY opposed to Larry in 2006 when he took on Babette. I opposed his run against her again this year, but it had been complicated by actually getting to know the guy and thinking that he was pretty nice, and more importantly the knowledge that he was a hard worker.
Larry canvassed his ass off for PAS, and unlike some others who have claimed to be "progressives" or "reformers" in blogs, at fundraisers, and in their campaign lit, Larry was someone actually willing to get in the trenches.
Anne of course was willing to work too. And I was all ears to hear that Anne had a plan to turnout voters with an awesome volunteer field program, but unfortunately she seemed to focus her campaign on a lot of media stunts this time around in a real contrast to the focused field campaign that Jen Murphy put together in 06 and that Sam and Josh Richards helped make real. And the volunteers buzz just was not the same. And she did not have the money to pay for enough canvassers to generate IDs and turn out voters to win.
This is another big difference between Larry and Anne: Larry had a better track record when it came to raising money. There are a lot of reasons why, and some of them due to structural inequity, but since Anne didn't make a public funding of elections bill happen, the reality is that when Fumo dropped out, it seemed that Larry was better positioned to win in the newly landscaped race.
Anyway, more serious analysis is needed, but I think if a progressive movement is to sget off the ground in Philadelphia--where leaders who come from the ground up (as Anne did) to actually win elected office in large numbers--there needs to be some real agreement about what a winning campaign strategy is.
That means metrics.
In the meantime, I agree with Sean who said that Larry is beholden to a slightly different set of interests than Fumo may have been. That said, Fumo always did pretty well by poor and working people and the new Center City Nutter supporters Sean references are NOT poor, so for me the challenge Larry will face--that we'll have to watch--is balancing that out, and not supporting only the interests of the elite in his district.
Yes
I agree re: metrics. But it's an area I know nothing about, so I am glad to have you reframe and explain things.
it starts with questions...
Getting out the vote is not an exact science, but there are some things that have been studied and there are results to share. Give me a day or two and I will write about what I have heard/studied/read.
Meanwhile, while it's fresh on everyone's minds, what are the election tactics you think work and which that you think don't? Share your perspective as a participant, a vote, in elections.
It's still Fumo's district,
It's still Fumo's district, even if he goes to jail (which is not very likely). But the big winner was Liberty City, who Fumo now owes big time.
So what's next for Anne Dicker? Dog catcher?
Actually, the full quote is better
From the story on April 23:
With Fumo holding up Farnese's arm, boxing-champion style, the Democratic nominee stood in the open outdoor cafe window of the Paradiso Restaurant in South Philadelphia to claim victory last night.
"Tonight, this city took five steps forward," Farnese, 39, said. "Tonight, we made another statement that Harrisburg will be reformed . . . and tonight, we fought back corruption and old-school politics in the city of Philadelphia."
---------------
And then there's this gem, from PA Votes Blog the same day:
Larry Farnese: "I ran against the party machine in 2006 and I did it again yesterday."
---------------
You know, I wonder if Dougherty is sitting around somewhere, wondering why he just didn't leave Babette Josephs alone in 2006...
Last night surprised me in all kinds of ways
I was hanging out with a friend of mine who I spent the day volunteering with yesterday and when she got a text message saying that Farnese was up 4 points, our minds were blown. Then he sealed the deal.
I can't help but think that a lot of surprising elections have happened lately. I remain surprised by Nutter's win. Farnese comes through. James goes down. Less surprised by Payton handily beating his opponent, but I never thought that was a gimme by any stretch.
People are thinking about political life differently in this city, no question. I find the Farnese victory really exciting though and I wish him well. I've only met the guy once, briefly. The 1st District is just a place that I sometimes go to Happy Hour in (and if you know me, you know I don't go to a lot of happy hours), so I never really bothered to watch this race too closely.
Still, it's a big surprise when the old guard loses. With Bob Brady barely registering in the Mayor's race and Dougherty seeing a big loss (if Dicker would have dropped out, let's say half her votes would have gone to Farnese, right? It's a big loss), the party structure seems badly, badly shaken.
I can't help but think that this brings up the issue of "Leadership" versus "Leadership Positions." "Leaders" are people with followers. On Election Days, this means they can persuade people to give time to helping generate voter turnout and that they can get people to follow their opinions about things. People in "Leadership Positions" have been elected or appointed to institutional places with authority and resources. Sometimes Leaders find their way into Leadership Positions, but I think we are seeing evidence now that the people with the Leadership Positions in the City aren't necessarily the Leaders with the biggest constituency.
It seems like a Shadow Party of some sort has sprung up in our city and it has the power to win elections from time-to-time. It will be interesting to watch this nascent Shadow Party attempt to undergird itself with some sort of institutional resources.
---
For Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Nomination for President.
This Too Will Pass, for the guts in your cerebrum.
conflation
yea, I don't know. I think that analysis is interesting but it basically elevates a lot of different races with different circumstances to the same level. And it sounds good and inspiring, which we all need to hear, but I am not sure how useful it is if a group of wants to elect more and more candidates who share a common vision on economic and social justice, openness in government, and acountability.
The one commonality perhaps is that the machine Doc built or Brady or Tartaglione rely on white working-class voters who are being rapidly replaced by new residents (more Latinos and African Americans in Tony's district and more affluent whites in the 1st). It's easier to win elections when you travel in the same social circles as your voters, and when you know people.
As for being surprised, again, as someone who believes there are best practices in electoral orgainzing, just like issue organizing, that can be applied to any situation like a formula and guarantee some one kind of result...we'll it's not THAT surprising that candidates with well-funded and organized field programs won.
Not just field
I think you are mostly right, Ray. But you field guys sometimes forget that having a nice media campaign helps reinforce the field and vice versa. Larry had a lot of money for TV.
To the future
Yea I agree that money for media is great, but for as much $ is required for print ads and TV, and relative to the number of votes they generate, field work is almost always a better investment in most state house races. Maybe it's worth it in state senate and city council districts, and certainly in any city-wide race, and I hope to see this discussion more fully fleshed out soon..but generally I reassert the point that we, who want to elect "progressive" candidates, can and should do a better job of naming the successful elements of an electoral campaign based more on numbers than message.
And this might be a tangent, but this inclination since 2004 to think of electoral races as the start of a progressive movement rather than a product of it is problematic. Let's go get healthcare, better transit funding, a reduction to gun violence from the people currently in office and see if those efforts can't effect the change we all really want (and maybe help generate new and organic candidates for office who can then take it to the next level).
As far as what progressives can do
your comment is totally on point. We are not going to match other factions with money. We need numbers and organizations and unity. And we need some money so we can finally pay our organizers. That is far more important for us than paying for media.
Electoral races and issues movements work hand in hand I think. Some people are more motivated by issues and others by elections. And elections can help focus on issues. I guess I agree with your focus on issues, although some of the candidates that come out of issue movements or community organizing learn the practical lessons of building an electoral campaign better than others. It is important that issue movements try to win things, not just take a stand, which is why the effort, for example, to actually pass health care reform this year is much more important than the single payer movement.
The age old campaign debate (field v. media)
It has been my experience that media generally softens up the turf for positive IDs. It does not replace IDs, ever.
If someone runs a campaign with great media (enough money for tv, 3+ pieces of mail, etc.) and then they do not ID anyone what is the point? In my opinion you are then sitting there crossing your fingers on Eday.
I'd rather be on the campaign with a bit less money (good field costs money too) that is actually counting votes 3 months out and has identified enough voters to meet their win number 2 weeks out.
Disclaimer - this take on the debate comes from an unabashed field guy.
Field v. Media
After doing outreach and field for Michael Nutter, I must say it irks me a little when people say the Olivia ad won the election for him.
While Nutter's media campaign was brilliant, his field operation was underestimated and overlooked. You can't win if you don't have people on the ground. You can soften them up in the air(media), but you win it on the ground (field).
Armchairing
I like the military analogy here: advertisements give air support to troops on the ground. It doesn't matter how much shock and awe you can bring, you can't hold a city without large numbers of well-trained soldiers. (Oops.) Ditto "astroturfing" -- trying to manufacture grassroots support that isn't really there.
At the same time, though, "media" means (and does) so many different things. There are the TV ads, both the number and the content, plus radio and wherever else you put a professional, packaged product. But there are also debates and forums, news coverage (in the paper, TV, web, and radio), and the blogosphere. Nutter benefited strongly from all of those, reaching different audiences, and helping to generate and galvanize his workers and volunteers in the field. (I hope I helped a little.)
Not all of that is really under a candidate or campaign's control. But Nutter was lucky: his ads were as good as Knox's, his coverage was better than Evans's, his people were as loyal as Brady's, and his field performance matched Fattah's. And he raised more money than anyone. He was able to do all that largely without traditional sources of political support. Is that a new politics? I'm not sure. But it does suggest -- at least within the very specific parameters of this unusual citywide race -- that the ground may be shifting a little. As it does, from time to time.
right but
we only have one race every eight years (sometimes four) for Mayor that is at the level of 07;. so most of the time the column inches are not available to the campaigns we care about, especially state rep.
I agree
Citywide races are different, statewide races different still, and even other citywide races don't command the same kind of attention the mayor's race does -- and this one started cooking very early.
So one question may be, how does media (writ large) work differently in different races, or on different issues? For example, you might be able to get TV news to beat the drum about crime, but not about transit (even though, ironically, so much time is devoted to traffic coverage). Does the blogosphere work best when it pounds away at single stories, like LaToya Figueroa, or long-term issues, like neighborhood development? How does it work differently in each case? etc.
Larry is a good man and he
Larry is a good man and he ran a great campaign. The majority of the Ward Leaders were opposed to him but he showed that a good candidate who reaches out to the people beyond the Ward system could render the old style Ward System obsolete.
Good for him. If he could maintain his independence, which I'm sure will, he will be an excellent Senator.
Farnese Coat Tailing to Victory?
I think that it is easy to over credit the campaign effort, staffing and strategy to the Farnese victory. In a normal election, we can compare apples to apples. However, this was far from a normal election. Some macro-magic may have been at play. I wonder if three factors lead to Doc's defeat (an incidental Farnese victory) 1) heavy, progressive, African-American turn-out in support of Obama 2) recent controversy about the building trades blocking access to good paying union jobs at the Convention Center 3) big white guys standing around the polls serving as a reminder of the discrimination with IBEW Local 98.
I don't know much about Farnese (other than he keeps running against people I like such as Babette), I don't think many voters do either. They know even less about Dicker. I think that it is as likely as not that the Farnese victory was more a vote against Doc. Farnese has some name recognition.
Add to this the fact that Doc's members can stand around polls but can't vote here (most of them are from the suburbs and S. Jersey), and you have a good recipe for defeat.
It is yet to be seen if people-of-color, women, lgbtq workers will get access to those good union jobs in the trades, but those folks who have been left out, may have finally had a chance to return the favor.
Dan Savage's Ladyfriend Carla
There are two things that I will miss from this election season.
The first, is being told by Brian Hickey that I am dishonest, a liar, etc etc. I am many things (immature, wonderful, very immature) but a liar ain't one of them.
The second thing I will miss is my biggest fan, and banned user, "Laurie Parrish."
"Laurie," for those of you who don't know, was part of a coordinated effort by (former Councilman, current ward leader) Danny Savage and co. to spread all kinds of disgusting things about Tony on the internet. (I probably over the course of the campaign should have talked a little more about ol' Danny and less about Marge. But I digress.) At some point, I booted off "Laurie" when she finally went a little too far.
"Laurie" and Danny's people then went over to Phillyblog, where they continued, unabated, and just got more and more repulsive.
It was then a real shock when I found out that "Laurie" is.... Danny Savage's ladyfriend, Carla. Ha. Ha. Ha. And, ol Carla said that with her power as a headhunter for law firms, she could make my life verrrrry difficult. Oh Danny, call off your goons!