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- Jan. 14 Workshop:HOW TO RUN FOR ELECTION BOARD IN 2013; HOW TO RUN FOR COMMITTEEPERSON IN 2014
- Seth Williams on Guns, Jasmine Rivera on School Closures @PFC Meetup Wednesday
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By Stephen Herzenberg, Third and State
The Corbett administration has a new summary of Pennsylvania's recent job performance. Today's news that Pennsylvania's unemployment rate is as high as the national unemployment rate underscores, however, that the state's recent jobs record is not good. Let’s take a closer look.
PA vs. U.S.: The Corbett jobs summary notes that Pennsylvania's unemployment rate is below the national rate — and it was when the summary was first released. This was not a new trend: the Pennsylvania rate was a point or a point-and-a-half below the national rate for most of the four years before Governor Corbett took office. A year ago, the gap between the Pennsylvania and U.S. unemployment rate was still statistically significant. (See Table A.) But the gap between the two rates — the "Pennsylvania advantage" — has been shrinking steadily since 2010 until the Pennsylvania rate finally climbed to the U.S. level in August 2012, both equaling 8.1%.
Private-sector Job Growth: While the administration touts private-sector job growth in 2011, the numbers reflect a national trend, rather than a unique Pennsylvania story.
The U.S. economy has had 30 consecutive months of private-sector job growth. In fact, Pennsylvania's rank for the percent growth in private-sector job growth has fallen from 8th in 2010 to 36th in the 12 months ending in July 2012. One of the reasons that Pennsylvania's private-sector job-growth ranking is down is the deeper cuts in public employment in Pennsylvania compared to other states. Deep cuts to Pennsylvania public schools and colleges led to a loss of 14,000 education jobs alone in 2011.
These layoffs impact the classroom and Main Street too. Unemployed teachers, like unemployed factory workers, don’t have money to spend, which affects the broader economy.
Manufacturing Job Growth: Manufacturing jobs growth improved in 2011, but again reflects national trends. In fact, Pennsylvania's manufacturing job growth since early 2010 is slightly below half the national increase. (See The State of Working Pennsylvania 2012.)
New Hires in Marcellus Shale: Not this one again. The administration is touting natural gas industry growth by citing the number of new hires. As we've explained repeatedly, new hires are not new jobs (most new hires replace people who quit or are fired). In fact, the number of new hires is basically a meaningless number. Statewide there were 580,400 new hires during the 2nd quarter in Pennsylvania, while total non-farm employment rose between the 1st and 2nd quarter by less than 300 jobs. In other words, the only reason to cite new hires is to make the job gain seem substantially larger than it really is.
The gas industry has led to some job growth in Pennsylvania, just not on the scale claimed by the industry. Between the 4th quarter of 2008 and the 4th quarter of 2011, employment in the core Marcellus Shale industries grew by 18,000. That gain was largely wiped out by the loss of 14,000 education jobs in just one year. Even using the most generous estimates, employment in the Marcellus Shale in direct and ancillary industries in the 4th quarter of 2011 (as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and industry) was 238,400 – about 4.2% of total state employment.
Here's the unsolicited advice: Twenty months into Governor Corbett's first term, there is still time for the Governor to pursue policies that will improve Pennsylvania's job performance. There are multiple options that have strong bipartisan and business support. For example, investing in transportation infrastructure as recommended by the Governor's own transportation commission.
In manufacturing and workforce development, the administration is also saying some of the right things. But talk is cheap: we need actual investment in skills and innovation if our job performance is going to improve relative to other states and the nation.
Capitolwire has a recent story (paywall) about the impact of the Marcellus Shale on Pennsylvania's unemployment rate. There is no question that oil and gas extraction is creating jobs in Pennsylvania and thus helping reduce unemployment. But it remains an open question precisely how big the impact is given how small employment in that sector is relative to an economy that employs 5.8 million people.
Table 1 below lists the 25 counties that experienced an increase in the number of Marcellus wells drilled between 2009 and 2010. For each county, I also report the change in the number of unemployed workers in that same period as well as the change in employment overall and within key sectors of the economy. It is clear from this data that the biggest impact of Marcellus activity is being felt in Bradford, Tioga, Lycoming and Susquehanna counties.
Listed in Table 2 is the share of employment that Natural Resources and Mining, Construction and Manufacturing represent of total nonfarm employment in these same 25 counties. On average in 2010, Natural Resources and Mining represented 3% of total employment in these counties, construction 4% and manufacturing 16%. Manufacturing in most of these counties is far and away the most important sector.
Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate rose to 7.6% in June from 7.4% in May, according to a report Thursday from the state Department of Labor and Industry. Overall, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm jobs in Pennsylvania was down 2,600 in June to 5,676,900.
I issued the following statement on the new jobs report:
"The June jobs report continues to raise concerns that Pennsylvania, like the rest of the nation, has hit a bump in the road to economic recovery.
"This is a disappointing report across the board, with the labor force dropping, employment falling and the unemployment rate rising slightly. While the economy is still growing, that growth has been slower than expected and has translated into much less job creation than we need at a time of high unemployment.
"One of the few bright spots was the addition of 2,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector. In a recent survey, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Board found some modest growth in manufacturing payrolls. Hopefully, that will translate into more job gains in this crucial sector.
"If we don't see stronger job growth in the fall, we can expect pressure to build for another round of intervention by national policy makers in the Federal Reserve and in Congress."