Yesterday, the PA Senate finally started the process of approving Philly’s pension change and sale tax hike that will keep the infamous ‘plan c’ from happening. Good. It is sort of hard to cheer such a basic thing, which should have been done a lot earlier, but, good.

Still in front of us, however, is the PA Budget. And, if Senate Republicans get their way, the State budget would arguably have an even greater impact on Philadelphia than the city’s own budget disaster. Cuts in everything from social services to parks to nursing homes for veterans to legal services for the poor are on the Senate chopping blocks. Basically, if the Senate gets its way, civil society in Pennsylvania fundamentally changes, for the worse.

And although we rightfully focus on Senate Republicans, especially Dominic Pillegi, for their current stance, the Joe Sestak campaign has reminded us of one guy who really has not gotten enough ‘credit’ for the huge gap in Pennsylvania’s budget: Arlen Specter. In fact, Arlen Specter is largely responsible for the entire gap between Ed Rendell’s original budget proposal and the infamous Senate Bill 850. How? With his ‘courage’ in the battle over President Obama's Recovery Act.

Back in May, the Pa. Senate Republicans released Senate Bill 850 (SB 850), which slashed every program imaginable to the bone or simply totally killed its funding. The difference between the Senate and Rendell’s budget was about 1.7 billion dollars. In effect, the Senate GOP was using the crisis as a chance to make an ideological stand to gut and gut and gut our civil society. But, guess what? That huge gap would barely have existed at all, except for the work of a couple ‘moderate’ Senators, led by our own Arlen Specter.

Nationally, most economists knew at the time of the stimulus that the original package proposed by the Democratic House was a good bill, but probably not big enough given how fast our economy was shrinking. And then, in a battle that echoes the global warming and health care fights, the Senate took the package and made it much worse. In the interest of ‘compromise,’ an Arlen Specter led group of Senators slashed 100 billion from the package, and shifted a lot of the funding towards tax cuts. Specter in fact lamented that we couldn’t have slashed all spending from the Recovery Act:

The agreement we reached was the best one we could under the circumstances. We were able to cut out $100 billion from the package and include 35% in tax relief in the overall bill. My preference would have been John McCain’s proposal, which I voted for, to have the stimulus package of $421 billion in tax cuts alone. I voted for the Reagan tax cuts back in 1981 and that would be the best course, but in a legislative body you don’t have exactly your own choice.

So, Specter didn’t get all of the cuts he wanted, but he was sure happy he was ‘able to cut 100 billion from the package.’ And what was one of the cuts he was successful in getting? 40 billion dollars for the state stabilization fund. In other words, 40 billion dollars in direct payment from the Federal Government to the states to help them with their huge budget problems.

According to Pa’s share of the national population, Arlen Specter’s Recovery Act cuts cost Pennsylvania about 1.6 billion dollars, or almost the entire gap between Rendell’s original budget proposal, and SB 850. Since then, the budget gap has grown. But even now, it would be halved if Arlen Specter didn’t slash the Recovery Act.

So the next time Specter brags about his vote on the Recovery Act, just remember what he was bragging about a couple months before he switched parties, and how that potentially could endanger Pennsylvania civil society as we know it.

Joe Sestak finally took the step we have been waiting for and expecting, and announced this morning that he is getting in the race for US Senate:

There are some who say it’s impossible to win without the backing of the establishment, who say we’d be better off cutting deals and bargaining on our principles. But that kind of political calculation isn’t what put the Democrats in power, and it isn’t going to keep us there. I say — and I’ve heard people all across the state say — that we need to stand up for our beliefs, that we need leaders of genuine conviction, not political convenience.

In other words, people should choose, not party leaders. I don't understand what is so hard to grasp about that, and yet, even today, we have TJ Rooney, the supposed chair of our party, saying things like this:

While the Pennsylvania Democratic Party welcomes Congressman Sestak to the race, he has an uphill climb against Senator Specter, the incumbent Democrat. Senator Specter is the front runner and enjoys the full support and financial commitment from President Obama, Vice President Biden, Senator Casey and Governor Rendell and thousands of rank and file Democrats.

I am a member the the Democratic party. I have volunteered and given part of my non-existent income to PA Democrats. But somehow, I missed the poll that TJ Rooney did that told him that rank and file Democrats are lining up behind Specter.

In any case, the Sestak challenge is good for the state and for the Country. Why? Check out this graph, from Nate Silver of 538:

"

In the middle of crucial votes on healthcare and energy, Sestak has effectively made Specter a reliable Democrat.

I don't know how this will all shake out. Sestak has a long way to go, and a lot of ground to cover. But this is a very real challenge to Specter, and it is good for all of us that it is happening.

I get emails:

Dear Dan,

You are one of my ardent supporters and I wanted you to know that tomorrow morning, Tuesday, August 4th, 2009 at 8:30 a.m., I will be making a major campaign announcement.

This announcement will take place at the Herbert W. Best VFW Post located at 1805 MacDade Boulevard, Folsom, PA 19033. While I doubt that you will be in the area, I wanted you to be aware of it, just in case. (If you do happen to be in the area, please let me know if you are able to attend by responding to this email; we are asking people to arrive at 7:45AM.) See Google Map.

We will also be providing a live webcast beginning tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. at Live.JoeSestak.com (I will begin speaking at approximately 8:45 a.m.).

A lot has happened in the past week in regards to the PA Senate race:

First, a new Keystone Poll shows Arlen Specter is not all that popular:

The strong backing of Democratic Party leaders has done little to change slumping public support for the party's newest convert, U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter. Only 28 percent of all those surveyed say that he deserves re-election, according to the latest Keystone Poll, and double that number say it's time for a change.

....

Back in March, before the switch, roughly half the voters in each party said that Specter was doing an "excellent" or "good" job in the Senate.

Those numbers have plunged in the latest survey. Whereas 57 percent of Democrats gave him good or excellent ratings in March, only 46 percent rate him as highly now. Among Republicans, 49 percent rated his job performance as good or excellent in March, and only 18 percent gave him those ratings last week.

The support that is he somewhat holding onto is that of Democrats. If there is a real primary, or if Arlen doesn't come out strong for the Obama agenda, those numbers will sink, too. Further, in a match up against Sestak (with a very big MoE), the poll has it at 33-13. For an ultra incumbent like Arlen, being that much below 50 percent is very, very dangerous, and adds to worrisome trend lines in polls of the race:

And that is without Sestak doing any campaigning... Sestak is edging ever closer to a run. Word is that he will not announce for a month or two, but, he has made it pretty clear that he is in.

While that Keystone poll was in the field, Arlen was supposed to speak at the convention of the United Steelworkers. They dis-invited him. (Read this whole post, because it is pretttty funny.) If labor leaves him, he is really screwed.

Given all of that, and in an attempt to head left, he recently said that he is for a public health care option, after scoffing at it right after he switched parties. No one said Arlen wasn't good at making you a little dizzy.

On the Republican side, ultra-right Pat Toomey has effectively been cleared for the general election, as local Congressman Jim Gerlach has said he will not run.

According to Talking Points Memo, Joe Sestak will run against Arlen Specter for Senate:

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is privately telling supporters that he intends to run for Senate, TPMDC has confirmed.

"He intends to get in the race," says Meg Infantino, the Congressman's sister, who works at Sestak for Congress. "In the not too distant future, he will sit down with his wife and daughter to make the final decision."

...

Earlier today, a Sestak volunteer and contributor received a handwritten note from Sestak himself, announcing his intent to run and asking for a contribution. The source provided TPMDC a scan of the letter:

Good.

Like everyone else on the Obama list, I got an email last week from Joe Biden about his "friend," Arlen Specter. Mr. Vice President, please, from me to you, butt out. The conversation that needs to happen is between Arlen Specter and Democrats about why he switched, not between you and us. If Specter is really a Democrat, he has the next year to show it.

If not, well, an actual Democrat appears to be entering the race.

So, Tom Ridge isn't running for Senate. As Adam Green says:

Interpretation: In the Pennsylvania Senate race, the Republicans are basically toast.

Dems now face a choice: Do they want their nominee to be someone who in the last week opposed Employee Free Choice, opposed the Obama health care "public option," sided with bankers against homeowners, said Norm Coleman should be seated, and declared he would not be a loyal Democrat?

And if they want someone else, who?

To me, any moral hazard of a primary against Specter just went out the window with Tom Ridge not running. He is the only Republican who I would really fear. (I still would rather a Democrat if Ridge did win, but it is certainly a strange wildcard that is gone.)

If you haven't voted, please do so now:

As reported at SpecterWatch today, Joe Torsella's campaign site is live and Congressman Sestak has updated his campaign site to reflect Senate interest.

The Sestak site's front page now says, among other things:

So while Arlen’s decision may be good for himself, politically, to avoid running against someone he could not beat, his decision begs what he is running for, and whether he is the best candidate to shape the future of Pennsylvania.
After 31 years of serving in our country’s military, and leading our brave men and women in harm’s way, one of my core tenets is that you run for something you believe in, and do not avoid that which may be difficult.

(cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Thanks to all those who have encouraged this effort -- including Dan and others from YPP. ("Now that Sen. Arlen Specter's switching to be a Democrat, let's keep the pressure on him so he votes like a PENNSYLVANIA Democrat and not a 'conservadem' (conservative Democrat) from Nebraska or the South.")

Realizing that plenty of people aren't on Facebook and don't necessarily want to be either, I've created a blog: Specter Watch. (The related Facebook group is here.)

I want to be clear: This is not ANTI-Specter as such.

That's why I chose "Watch" for the name. What he does and doesn't do bears watching.

For example: Specter's First Big Vote Since Switch: No on Obama Budget

(cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Joining this group does not make you anti-Specter or pro-Specter. Just means you think we need to keep an eye on him and keep pressure on him on the Employee Free Choice Act, on health care reform, you name it.

I can't claim this idea. But as a Pennsylvanian, I'd like to help spread it. Sen. Specter is still against the Employee Free Choice Act. Let's keep the pressure on him so he votes like a PENNSYLVANIA Democrat and not a "conservadem" (to use Rachel Maddow's term) from Nebraska or the South.

According to the Atlantic:

Holy moly:

Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.

Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980.

These are Santorum-esque poor numbers. Yet they aren't in the general election, but his own friggin primary. Is it possible that Specter will really end his Senate career by being absolutely crushed in a GOP primary? I guess, but I really cannot see it. If this keeps going, I have to believe we will hear something from him, be it a retirement, or him leaving the GOP.

When you are a GOP incumbent and you are down 21 percent in a primary, you will lose, no matter what regressive slights of hand you try to play. After screwing workers all around the Country, he deserves it.

We haven't talked about it much, but the last few days have seen a number of developments in the US Senate race.

First, ultra-right wing ideologue Pat Toomey has hinted that he is going to make a primary challenge to Arlen Specter. Toomey, who almost beat Specter the last time out, has said that Arlen's vote on the stimulus bill has made him think about running. He would present a very real danger to Specter under any circumstances, because he will have lots of money, he is now well known, Specter will not have Rick Santorum or George Bush campaigning for him, and with Obama-caused defections of moderates, the PA GOP has become even more conservative than in 2004, when Toomey almost won.

Second, and related, a Susquehana poll was released, and it has basically shown that if a credible conservative candidate runs, like Toomey, Arlen is in deep, deep trouble.

HARRISBURG -- A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.

Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a "new person" in that job, registered voters by a 53-38 percent margin said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. Eight percent were undecided.

The numbers might reflect Specter's vote as one of three Republican senators who enabled passage of President Obama's $787 billion federal stimulus package, said James Lee, president of Harrisburg-based Susquehanna polling. But they reflect long-standing dissatisfaction among Republican conservatives with Specter's record, he said.

....

Among registered Republicans, 66 percent favored a new senator and 26 percent backed Specter. The margin of error on that question was plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

Almost half of registered Democrats (49 percent) favored Specter over someone new (42 percent.) The margin of error was 5 percentage points, Lee said.

Those are crazily bad re-elect numbers. If Toomey runs, Specter could not only lose, but do so by quite a bit.

Third, because of one and two, the talk begins anew that Specter should switch parties, and finish out his time in politics the way he started, as a Democrat.

As that poll shows (I think it is done by a GOP firm, so, take it with a grain of salt), Specter would appear to have better numbers amongst Democrats. However, those numbers are high amongst Democrats because... he is a Republican. In other words, Democrats have warm feelings for him because he sometimes bucks the party line and comes to our side. However, in a state trending ever-more blue, I don't think Specter, who would become the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, would be nearly as popular.

Dan Pohlig, who worked for Joe Hoeffel in his race against Specter, has his own take here.

Bottom line: If Pat Toomey runs, and Specter doesn't switch, he is gone. It strikes me then, that it would really benefit Democrats to get a credible statewide candidate, instead of everyone and their mother running for Governor.