Updates from the street....

Across the city, thousands of Philadelphians are working hard to elect their candidate. I thought it would be good to create a thread where people could share their experiences. For those of you trapped in an office, tell us what your co-workers, friends, and family are saying about the election. If you already voted, let's hear about your experience!

trapped

In an office. I got out to vote though, plenty of eager poll workers ready to pounce on me. Has anyone heard about Knox's satellite office being robbed??? By his own eday workers no less!

I have noticed that Knox's

I have noticed that Knox's workers seem.....uh.....not that interested. They are all sitting in lawn chairs outside the polling places and not handing out litature.

Has anyone seen any of the guys from Local 98? Are they working for Knox? None of them seem to be in the northwest. That's to be expected, but are they anywhere else?

Despite the fact that Mt. Airy is heavily for Nutter, I have noticed an impressive number of Fattah workers. They are everywhere. I guess that field operation is real.

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Check out my blog!

I am currently working for Marc Stier and Ellen Green-Ceisler.

grassroots vs astroturf

I thought the same thing this morning. I was handing out Liberty City cards (with this VERY EAGER supporter for Erdos) and there were like 5 Knox guys standing a bit away from the poll, doing nothing. I guess he's got the money to pay for that. Anyway, that's the difference between grassroots and astroturf.

Dry Sandwiches

I spoke to some Knox poll watchers yesterday. They were very peeved about the quality of the bagged lunch they were given by the campaign. Dry turkey sandwich on wheat bread, a tiny apple, and water. I guess that was a window into the type of Mayor he would have been...

eager erdos vols

what poll? I want to know which of my volunteers was very eager!

7th & catherine. In all

7th & catherine. In all fairness, it was his neighbor. Her rap was something like, "Do you know Mike Erdos? He lives in the neighborhood (he doesn't really, so she would kinda switch back and forth b/w 'my' and 'the'), he's a Rhodes Scholar, such a great guy. Here! Take this card" and so on. But boy was she loud.

Mike Erdos seemed eager to me

Maybe it's contagious. I saw him at Rittenhouse Park yesterday and he was by himself handing out flyers to everyone sitting on the benches. I was pretty impressed!

I'm trapped in an office too but voted this morning around 10:15 at the Greenfield School at 22nd and Chestnut. I was the 67th voter, there was no line at all, and there was not one single volunteer outside giving out a single thing. Not even the official Dem ballot!!!

Erdos Impresses! It's just that simple.

More than just about any judicial candidate, Mike is worthy of being a judge. As I said yesterday in my post supporting Erdos, he has impressed me since day one. And, I truly hope he will be on the bench here in Philly.

So Mad at my Committee-People

One of the committeewomen in my district runs the polling place (Chinatown - Ward 5 District 13) and they couldn't get things up and running till 8:30am. Really ticked me off and turned away probably 40-50 people. If this was a national election I'd be ready to kick someone's ass but still....not cool people!

I visited 5 polling places bearing my Nutter gear throughout center city and only saw people touting Untermeyer, Nutter, and a few Brady. All in all I thought it was quiet during the 7-12pm hours.

Also noticed the plane flying around the city with the "Someone says Knox=Shark" banner. It was almost impossible to read though so I don't know who their audience is.

based on all available

based on all available information...which is never enough...I was thinking it was gonna be nutter with an 8 point lead ... but after tom knox's cmpaign office got robbed at gunpoint by his own staff, I would like to change my prediction to nutter with a 10 point lead.

working for Ellen Green-Ceisler for Judge

holy guacamole!!!!!!!

whoa! whoa!

I just sat down and really thought about the numbers taking into account gotv weather voter motivation and all that jazz...

and I have to admit, I have come to the conclusion that if people actually go out and vote after work, Nutter could win this election with as much as a 17 percent margin!
in a five way race!

No one is gonna believe me, but in all honesty, here is what I think it's gonna look like.

Nutter 39
Knox 22
Fattah 16
Brady 16
Evans 7

I did the numbers three times, I was so shocked.
That can't be right!

To his credit, Sternberg said this a week ago. Without seeing eday.

Wow. that would sure be some kind of mandate, wouldn't it? Mike Nutter would be able to do just about anything he wanted!

Now wouldn't that be cool?

I suggest you Nutter folks call your friends and make sure they vote tonight.

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working for Ellen Green-Ceisler for Judge

what could prevent this?

I can think of three things that could prevent this from happening, between 630 and 8 pm tonight...

1. a massive traffic accident on the Schuylkill or kelly or lincoln drives

2. if the people who mailed absentee ballots forgot to put on the new postage amount, as it has recently changed

3. a tornado coming out of new jersey!

working for Ellen Green-Ceisler for Judge

or . ..

All the polling to-date has grievously undersampled Philadelphians living in poverty or are working-class, and who may be leaning Fattah in a big way.

My final numbers:

Nutter: 36%
Knox: 23%
Fattah: 20%
Brady: 15%
Evans: 6%

Victory speech at 11:30p.

what was wrong with the

what was wrong with the methodology?

I suspect that fattah's gotv might add to knox's numbers, not fattah's

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working for Ellen Green-Ceisler for Judge

Oh, I think it was close .

But an automated phone-based poll is biased towards people who have land lines and are at them at the time of the call.

but what u are talking about

but what u are talking about would oversample folks who are out of work.

what time of day are the calls made?

5-7 or 6-8? or during the day?

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working for Ellen Green-Ceisler for Judge

No ...

It might undersample folks working 2+ jobs, or young people who only have cell lines. I don't know what hours they were calling.

boy did i screw this one up!!!!

talk about having to eat your words!!!

what kind of GOTV did knox run anyway???

his voters were the laziest ones. how did he get them out?

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working for Ellen Green-Ceisler for Judge

q. are fires in new jersey

q. are fires in new jersey equivalent to a tornado?

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working for Ellen Green-Ceisler for Judge

Work on the Board

If you have a bad polling place then you should work on the election board. It pays $95 and is thirteen hours.

Evans/Miller people

Evans/Miller people everywhere is the norm in the Northwest.

Seriously 4 at every poll. I have seen little from Fattah, and zero from Nutter.

In terms of the 8th, Evans, win or lose, is def helping Donna Miller quite a bit.

Quick takes from the Northeast

I voted at Wilson Middle School, polling location for Ward 53, Div 17-8, and Ward 56, Div 2, at approximately 10:30 AM. Took a "neither seek, nor avoid" approach to those handing out literature. Decent amount of workers hanging out on the steps, who were fairly active with lit handouts. Received palm cards for:

Tom Knox (also "Democratic reform ballot")
Bob Brady
Maria Quinones Sanchez
Dan Savage
Juan Ramos
Bob Mulgrew
Scott Cummings (despite explicitly identifying myself as a Democrat)

No one did much of a "sell" for their candidates as they handed out lit, other than the Cummings rep (again, the one for whom I could definitely not vote).

Once inside the school lobby (but presumably still within the safe area for electioneering, as there was still some distance between it and the auditorium holding the voting machines), there was a table with someone with more Brady lit, and possibly a sample Democratic ballot. However, I mistakenly approached a table with someone who was there to address actual school-related matters. From there, I just proceeded to the auditorium. I never did get anything purporting to be a sample Democratic ballot.

After signing in, there was a wait of only a few minutes. There were two machines for my division, and both were occupied when I signed in. However, there was nobody else in front of me in line.

Signage and people presence at this polling location was dominated by Brady, followed by Knox. The Knox and Brady people weren't exactly the most active ones here, but I wouldn't say that was the case at all of the locations where I did a quick walkby. Significant signage, relatively speaking, for Quinones-Sanchez. Some signs for Nutter, as well as for Derek Green, though no one handing out lit.

From 3:30-4:30 I did a little tour around the neighborhood and walked by polling locations for Ward 53, Div 20, and Ward 56, Div 4,9,14-16,37. Again, a lot of Brady and Knox people. Presence deviating from the routine: at the location for 53-20 and 56-9, John Green signs; at the location for 56-16,37, Bill Greenlee signs.

Cummings cross-filed

Scott Cummings was on both the Democratic and Republican ballots for Traffic Court. He did not win on the Dem side, however.

Observations from Three CC GOTV Shifts

1) Elderly ladies in Chinatown are frightened of me.
2) People in the Gayborhood are polite, friendly, and largely for Nutter.
3) People in Society Hill are curt and stressed-sounding, but also largely for Nutter.

Yeah, so that's not very deep. You know what's nice? Not standing anymore. I'm fixing myself a drink, and deciding what I want to wear to the victory(?) party.

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Volunteering for Michael Nutter

Frankford seems locked up for Brady

if the polling place I was at is any indication. Also, the Savage supporters were quite plentiful.

ETA--Also, the standing? I'm over it too.

Other Takes from NE

Dude, I think you are behind a couple elections. Scott Cummings is running as a democrat this cycle.

Yeah, I'm behind on the traffic court goings-on

Cummings is running as both. Looks like he's still really a Republican (as he was in December when he ran against Greenlee), but he was industrious enough to get the necessary sigs to cross-file.

Fattah's Field Organization - It get's an "A"

For disclosure I served as Chaka's Policy Director during the Exploratory Process. After taking some time off to be with my new baby, I got called back into service last week for a very different purpose. I have had the pleasure of running the field operation for The Economic Justice Coalition for Truth. In my travels today I saw a tremendous field operation mounted by the Fattah campaign: Gregg Naylor is a GOTV genius.

As for the polls ... they are probably indicative of what is going on with Nutter in the lead but ... think about this for a moment.

The last Keystone poll sample universe was small; it had Women outnumbering men by a 3 to 2 margin. A full 45% of respondents made over $50k. It was over-sampled 49% white to 45% African American and 37% of respondents had at least a 4 year college degree.

What Philadelphia was Terry Madonna polling?

With this said ... don't be surprised if Fattah pulls off a 3-5 point win tonight -- if he was able to get his ID'd voters out to the polls

We will all know very shortly.

Well...

Terry Madonna was correct.

The whole ticket

Fattah's field organization didn't win him the mayor's office, but it looks like it may have gotten Curtis Jones elected in the 4th and Blondell Reynolds Brown at-large in very close, tough elections, where every voter really mattered. They and the Fattah camp have every right to be proud of themselves tonight, even if they weren't able to win the top of the ticket or their other two council races.

thanks for this, short schrift

I agree this is what saved Blondell given her terrible ballot position and getting cut by the Brady machine. Curtis Jones was also helped, but has won his own following over the years.

On another topic, I ran into many Knox workers in South Philly. They were all African American, paid, totally unmotivated, and many told me and others they had voted for Fattah themselves.

Knox said he had 3000 people on the street. But paid workers who don't support you do little if anything to help you win.

I helped run the union piece of the Fattah GOTV operation. We sent out hundreds of enthusiastic, trained, organized workers. This was on top of the many hundreds more that went out from Naylor's main field office. It certainly helped get out our ID'd voters. There just weren't enough of them.

KYW has some results

http://elections.cbslocal.com/cbs/kyw/20070515/

(sorry if I violated any rules, I did not take the time to read prior to posting.)

It's not clear who's in yet.

comment deleted

deleted by writer after resuts changed

Tom Knox just conceded.

Tom Knox just conceded.

could i have lied?

Just wondering...

I'm registered as no affiliation. I voted in 15th ward and when I approached the machine, a poll worker asked me, "Republican or Democrat?" It wasn't particularly busy, so I guess the ladies at the sign-in table might have corrected me, but what was stopping me from picking one of his two options? How many folks did this on election day? I told him, "I have no affiliation" and he had to ask some other poll worker how to properly set the machine.

No way

It's in the poll book, and on the slip of paper that you hand to the machine operator.

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