The times (and the polls) they are a changin'
The close Democratic race reflected in the polls and the party's complex system of proportionally doling out delegates to national conventions suggests no clear winner will emerge in the race on Tuesday.
A new national poll for the Washington Post (nyse: WPO - news - people ) and ABC had Clinton with a slim four point lead over Obama 47 to 43 pct, within the margin of error, and in line with other recent similar polls.
Clinton had small leads in most other significant states, but Obama, an Illinois senator, appeared to be closing fast.
In the delegate-rich state of California, Obama and Clinton appeared to be locked in a pitched battle: a Field Poll had her up 36 to 34 pct, down from a 12 point lead in mid-January.
Obama lead by 45 to 41 pct in a Zogby poll in California, while the former first lady led her rival 45 to 36 pct in a McClatchy (nyse: MNI - news - people ) survey.
Read more here
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/02/03/afx4607905.htm...
Bradley Effect
I know it's been repeated ad nauseum, but it's worth noting that the so-called 'Bradley Effect' refers to former LA Mayor Tom Bradley losing in a California gubernatorial election despite polls giving him a comfortable lead over George Deukmejian. The lesson: trust polls about as much as you trust the weatherman. And you should probably be dubious if the weatherman says that the sun rises in the east.
-Z